Laagri vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Laagri vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours Laagri to win this match against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Laagri currently sits in 8th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having secured 19 points from 17 matches. Their season has been inconsistent, with six wins, one draw, and ten losses. Key statistics indicate they have scored 21 goals while conceding 30, resulting in a goal difference of -9. Despite a recent form of just one win in their last five matches, they have the advantage of playing against a struggling opponent. Trans Narva finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 10th place, accumulating only 10 points from the same number of matches. Their record of three wins, one draw, and thirteen losses highlights a challenging season, with a troubling goal tally of just 11 scored and 40 conceded, leading to a goal difference of -29. Although they managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests they have struggled to compete consistently throughout the season. According to the model, Laagri has a 42.4% chance of winning, while the probability of a draw stands at 26.1%, and Trans Narva has a 31.5% chance of victory. A potential caveat for Laagri is their recent form, which could indicate vulnerability. For a comprehensive explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Laagri have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Laagri are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Laagri vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.05 | 3.55 | 3.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.25 | |
| 1.99 | 3.54 | 3.08 | 1.64 | 2.12 | 1.54 | 2.25 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.15 | 1.65 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.98 | 3.22 | 2.99 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.01 | 3.54 | 3.14 | 1.64 | 2.12 | 1.54 | 2.29 | |
| 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.52 | 2.28 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.62 | 2.02 | — | — |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.55 | 3.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.58 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.13 | 2.80 | 1.52 | 1.84 | 1.44 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 5-5)The head-to-head record between Laagri and Trans Narva stands at 5 wins for each side with no draws in their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, although the scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and some lopsided results. Notably, Laagri has secured a few decisive victories, including a 3-0 win, while Trans Narva has also recorded a 4-2 win. The matches tend to feature both narrow scores and heavier wins, suggesting that while the teams are evenly matched, each has the capacity to dominate on their day.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 36 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 34 | WDDLD |
| 4 |  Paide | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 32 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 8 | Laagri | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 17 | LLDWD |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 10 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLaagri have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Laagri 1-3 and lost to Laagri 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 12L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 1 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 1-0 and drew with Kuressaare 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 18L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLaagri
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Laagri average 1.6 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Laagri have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 41% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. Laagri player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.