Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene Prediction, Tips & Odds
Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene
Match Preview
The model favours Leevon / PPK to win against Smiltene, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Leevon / PPK is currently positioned third in the league, boasting an impressive record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses from 16 matches. With 36 points, they have a solid goal difference of +9, having scored 27 goals while conceding 18. Their recent form shows four wins in their last five matches, indicating a strong momentum as they aim to maintain their position near the top of the table. On the other hand, Smiltene finds themselves struggling at 13th place with only 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses from the same number of matches. With just 10 points, they have a concerning goal difference of -24, having scored 19 goals but conceded a staggering 43. Their recent form has been less than encouraging, with three losses in their last five matches, highlighting ongoing difficulties in both attack and defense. The model suggests a high win probability for Leevon / PPK, reflecting their stronger overall performance this season. However, one caveat could be complacency, as they may underestimate a struggling opponent like Smiltene. For a detailed breakdown of the methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Leevon / PPK win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Leevon / PPK clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Leevon / PPK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.22 | 5.50 | 8.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 5.85 | 8.20 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 1.52 | 2.27 | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 9.00 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 1.17 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | — | — | |
| 1.23 | 5.85 | 8.50 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 1.52 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 1.28 | 5.10 | 7.40 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.27 | 5.25 | 7.20 | 1.27 | 3.15 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Leevon / PPK leads 3-0)In the last five matches between Leevon / PPK and Smiltene, Leevon / PPK has won three times, with two matches ending in draws, while Smiltene has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Leevon / PPK to dominate, with two matches featuring heavy wins of 4-0 and 2-0, alongside a narrow 3-2 victory. The draws, both at 0-0 and 2-2, suggest that while Smiltene can hold their ground, they have struggled to find the net against Leevon / PPK, who have not lost in this recent head-to-head history.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Valmiera / BSS | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 15 | 33 | 44 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 31 | WWDDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 25 | LWLLW |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 | Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLeevon / PPK have won 9 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Leevon / PPK 2-1 and beat Leevon / PPK 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 6L from the last 29 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Smiltene have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 1-2 and lost to Mārupe 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 7D 17L from the last 28 games (14% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeevon / PPK
No reported absences
Smiltene
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Leevon / PPK average 1.8 goals per match at home; Smiltene 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Leevon / PPK have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 59% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Leevon / PPK player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
