Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC
Match Preview
The model favours Levski Sofia to win against AEK Athens FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Levski Sofia has shown impressive form this season, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This strong performance indicates a high level of confidence and effectiveness in their play, which could be crucial in a knockout stage like the Champions League play-offs. On the other hand, AEK Athens FC also comes into this match with solid form, having secured four wins and only one loss in their last five games. However, their recent defeat may raise some concerns about consistency, especially when facing a well-performing opponent like Levski Sofia. The ability to bounce back from setbacks will be vital for AEK Athens in this encounter. According to the model output, Levski Sofia has a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market statistic to note is that the odds might reflect a tight contest, given AEK Athens's competitive form. One caveat to consider is that if AEK Athens can leverage their strong offensive capabilities, they could pose a significant threat to Levski Sofia's aspirations. The full methodology used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as it relies on an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Levski Sofia manage games at home, conceding just 0.48 goals per match. AEK Athens FC score 1.90 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.2% probability.
Levski Sofia have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Levski Sofia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.44 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.43 | 2.21 | 1.64 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 3.10 | 3.18 | 2.46 | 2.27 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.67 | 2.94 | 2.30 | 2.13 | 1.66 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.14 | 3.19 | 2.54 | 2.29 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.60 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 1.76 | 1.91 | |
| 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonLevski Sofia have won 11 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Levski Sofia 2-0 and beat Levski Sofia 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 1L from the last 21 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AEK Athens FC have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat PEC Zwolle 2-3 and beat Groningen 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 4L from the last 29 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLevski Sofia
No reported absences
AEK Athens FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Levski Sofia average 1.9 goals per match at home; AEK Athens FC 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Levski Sofia have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 67% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Levski Sofia player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
