Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC
Match Preview
The model favours Levski Sofia to win against AEK Athens FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Levski Sofia has shown impressive form this season, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This strong performance indicates a high level of confidence and effectiveness in their play, which could be crucial in a knockout stage like the Champions League play-offs. On the other hand, AEK Athens FC also comes into this match with solid form, having secured four wins and only one loss in their last five games. However, their recent defeat may raise some concerns about consistency, especially when facing a well-performing opponent like Levski Sofia. The ability to bounce back from setbacks will be vital for AEK Athens in this encounter. According to the model output, Levski Sofia has a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market statistic to note is that the odds might reflect a tight contest, given AEK Athens's competitive form. One caveat to consider is that if AEK Athens can leverage their strong offensive capabilities, they could pose a significant threat to Levski Sofia's aspirations. The full methodology used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as it relies on an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Levski Sofia manage games at home, conceding just 0.64 goals per match. AEK Athens FC score 2.03 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.5% probability.
AEK Athens FC have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. AEK Athens FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 1.75 | |
| 3.30 | 2.98 | 2.31 | 2.38 | 1.56 | 1.95 | 1.74 | |
| 3.20 | 2.88 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.45 | 3.03 | 2.38 | 2.43 | 1.58 | — | — | |
| 2.94 | 2.97 | 2.31 | 2.28 | 1.64 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 3.44 | 3.11 | 2.41 | 2.46 | 1.62 | 1.97 | 1.75 | |
| 3.30 | 2.95 | 2.38 | 2.43 | 1.47 | 2.02 | 1.68 | |
| 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 1.98 | 1.78 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 1.58 | 2.02 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Levski Sofia and AEK Athens FC shows 0 wins for Levski Sofia, 1 draw, and 0 wins for AEK Athens FC. Their only encounter ended in a goalless draw, indicating a tightly contested match with neither side able to secure a victory. This lack of scoring suggests that both teams may struggle to find the net against each other. With no wins recorded for either team in their history, this matchup has been balanced and competitive, but also low in goal production.
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 36 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLevski Sofia have won 11 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Levski Sofia 6-0 and drew with Levski Sofia 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 2L from the last 25 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AEK Athens FC have won 8 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Nestos Chrisoupolis 0-2 and drew with Kifisia 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 11D 4L from the last 35 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLevski Sofia4-2-3-1Confirmed
AEK Athens FC4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersLevski Sofia
No reported absences
AEK Athens FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Nyberg has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Levski Sofia have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; AEK Athens FC 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AEK Athens FC have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AEK Athens FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
