Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad
Match Preview
The model favours Lillestrom to win this match against Fredrikstad, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Lillestrom currently sits in fifth place in the league, having accumulated 26 points from 17 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses. One notable aspect is their goal difference of +2, indicating a slightly stronger offensive performance compared to their defensive record. On the other hand, Fredrikstad is positioned eighth with 23 points from the same number of matches. Their season has been challenging, reflected in their goal difference of -9, which suggests they have struggled defensively, conceding 27 goals while scoring only 18. Despite their recent form showing three wins in their last five matches, they face a tough challenge against a higher-placed opponent. The model gives Lillestrom a win probability of approximately 54%, projecting a score of 2-1. A key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Lillestrom winning at home. However, one caveat is that if Fredrikstad can leverage their recent form and improve their defensive stability, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Lillestrom have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lillestrom clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Lillestrom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.33 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.81 | 3.63 | 4.80 | 1.85 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 1.76 | 3.52 | 3.93 | 1.71 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.77 | 3.89 | 4.43 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.61 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.50 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
Superbet | 1.77 | 3.65 | 4.30 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 3-1)The head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Fredrikstad shows 1 win for Lillestrom, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Fredrikstad over their last 7 matches. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in draws. Fredrikstad has secured three victories, including a notable 3-0 win, while Lillestrom's only win was a narrow 2-1 result. Overall, the fixtures have been relatively balanced, with no team dominating the other. The last win for Lillestrom came in early 2024, suggesting a slight edge for Fredrikstad in recent encounters.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 26 | LWWWW |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLillestrom have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lillestrom 1-4 and beat Lillestrom 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 14L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fredrikstad have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lillestrom 1-4 and beat Eidsvold IF 1-7.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 13L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLillestrom4-3-3Confirmed
Fredrikstad3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersLillestrom4
Fredrikstad4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Hansen has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lillestrom have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Fredrikstad 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lillestrom have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lillestrom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
