Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lyon vs Auxerre
Match Preview
The model favours Lyon to win against Auxerre, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lyon enters the season with a solid standing, currently positioned 5th in the league. While they have not played any matches this season, their recent form indicates a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their ability to score (GF) and maintain a competitive edge in the league will be key factors as they look to start the season on a positive note. On the other hand, Auxerre finds themselves in 14th place. Like Lyon, they have yet to play a match this season. However, their recent form showcases a slightly better consistency with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This form suggests that they can be resilient and may pose a challenge to Lyon if they can replicate their recent performances. The model predicts a win probability of around 60% for Lyon, reflecting their higher league position and recent form. A key market percentage to note is Lyon's odds of winning set at 1.75. However, a potential caveat is that both teams are entering the season without any competitive matches, which could lead to unpredictability in performance. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results accumulated throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Lyon have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Lyon win as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lyon clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Lyon are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lyon vs Auxerre| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.49 | 4.35 | 5.80 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.44 | 4.95 | 7.30 | 1.51 | 2.35 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.43 | 4.96 | 7.48 | 1.57 | 2.53 | — | — | |
| 1.46 | 3.94 | 5.22 | 1.64 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 1.42 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.46 | 5.03 | 7.50 | 1.63 | 2.49 | 1.73 | 2.01 | |
| 1.42 | 4.50 | 6.75 | 1.61 | 2.28 | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.54 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 1.67 | 2.22 | 1.78 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 7.50 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Lyon leads 4-2)In the last nine matches between Lyon and Auxerre, Lyon has won four times, there have been three draws, and Auxerre has secured two victories. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with a mix of narrow wins and draws. Notably, three of Lyon's wins were by a single goal, while Auxerre's two victories include a decisive 4-0 win in 2011. The most recent draw was a 0-0 stalemate, showing that both teams can be defensively solid. Auxerre's last win against Lyon was in February 2023, suggesting that recent encounters have leaned slightly in Lyon's favor.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Paris FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | WWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 | Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLyon have won 12 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Auxerre 3-1 and drew with Le Havre 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 10L from the last 34 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Auxerre have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Auxerre 3-1 and lost to Lens 5-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 11L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLyon4-2-3-1Confirmed
Auxerre4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
15 playersLyon8
Auxerre7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Buquet has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lyon have averaged 7.5 corners per match at home; Auxerre 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lyon have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lyon player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
