Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Match Preview
The model favours Paris Saint Germain to win against Monaco, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Although the season is just starting, PSG holds a strong position as a top contender, having finished the previous season in second place. Their recent form shows some inconsistency with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, but they typically perform well at home. On the other hand, Monaco enters the new season with a solid foundation, finishing seventh last season. Their recent form is more encouraging, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests they may carry some momentum into this fixture, which could play a crucial role in their performance against a formidable opponent like PSG. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for PSG, while the projected score is 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that PSG's recent form may not fully reflect their capabilities, and if they fail to capitalize on home advantage, the outcome could swing in Monaco's favour. For a detailed understanding of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
Paris Saint Germain have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Paris Saint Germain win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Paris Saint Germain clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Paris Saint Germain are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.37 | 5.40 | 6.40 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.33 | 6.05 | 8.70 | 1.31 | 3.20 | 1.55 | 2.29 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.34 | 5.92 | 8.19 | 1.34 | 3.34 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.55 | 5.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.50 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.00 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.36 | 6.09 | 8.80 | 1.31 | 3.20 | 1.56 | 2.30 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.50 | 1.32 | 3.25 | 1.55 | 2.33 | |
Betano | 1.38 | 5.80 | 7.80 | 1.37 | 3.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 1.43 | 5.20 | 6.50 | 1.45 | 2.77 | 1.64 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.50 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paris Saint Germain leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco, Paris Saint Germain has won 5 times, Monaco has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and more decisive victories, with several matches featuring high scores, such as PSG’s 5-2 win and 4-1 win. The most recent encounter saw Monaco achieve a 3-1 victory, demonstrating that both teams have had their moments of success. The results reflect a competitive rivalry, with neither side dominating consistently over this sample.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Paris FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | WWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 13 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2 | LDD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonParis Saint Germain have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Monaco 1-2 and beat Aston Villa 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Monaco have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Monaco 1-2 and beat Le Havre 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 7L from the last 30 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedParis Saint Germain4-3-3Confirmed
Monaco4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersParis Saint Germain3
Monaco5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Brisard has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Paris Saint Germain have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Monaco 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Paris Saint Germain have generated 3.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paris Saint Germain player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
