Nice vs Le Mans Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nice vs Le Mans
Match Preview
The model favours a draw in the upcoming match between Nice and Le Mans, projecting a scoreline of 1-1. Nice currently sits in 8th place in the Ligue 1 standings after one match, having drawn their opening fixture. Their recent form shows a mixed performance with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating some struggle to convert chances into victories. Le Mans, on the other hand, is positioned slightly higher in 5th place, also with one draw from their opening match. They have scored two goals but conceded the same number, reflecting a balanced but defensively vulnerable start to the season. Their recent form mirrors Nice's with one win, three draws, and one loss in the last five games, suggesting both teams are currently finding it difficult to secure wins. The model outputs a win probability of 35% for Nice, 30% for Le Mans, and 35% for a draw. While the statistical balance suggests a closely contested game, a caveat to consider is the potential for either team to exploit defensive weaknesses, which could lead to unexpected results. The full method, based on expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as detailed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Nice manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Le Mans score 1.43 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Nice have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Nice clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Nice are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nice vs Le Mans| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.78 | 3.86 | 4.75 | 1.79 | 2.05 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.85 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.78 | 3.94 | 4.70 | 1.81 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.26 | 3.71 | 1.86 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.81 | 3.92 | 4.82 | 1.84 | 2.11 | 1.71 | 2.04 | |
| 1.83 | 3.55 | 4.10 | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.77 | 1.96 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.65 | 4.25 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.88 | 3.65 | 4.20 | 1.83 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Le Mans leads 1-0)In their only past encounter, Le Mans won against Nice with a score of 3-2. This result indicates a competitive match, with both teams scoring multiple goals, but ultimately it shows an advantage for Le Mans. Nice has not yet secured a victory in this head-to-head record, and the close scoreline suggests that future matchups could be similarly contested.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Paris FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | WWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 14 | Le Mans | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2 | DLD |
| 15 | Nice | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 | DLD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNice have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Le Mans 1-1 and drew with Lorient 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 14D 10L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Le Mans have won 2 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Le Mans 1-1 and lost to Rennes 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 6D 3L from the last 14 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNice3-4-2-1Confirmed
Le Mans3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
14 playersNice5
Le Mans9
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Pignard has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Nice average 1.1 goals per match at home; Le Mans 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nice have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 23% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nice player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
