Toulouse vs Lille Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toulouse vs Lille
Match Preview
The model favours Lille to win against Toulouse, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lille enters the season with higher expectations, positioned 8th in the standings compared to Toulouse's 17th. Although both teams have yet to play this season, Lille's recent form shows promise, with two wins, two draws, and only one loss in their last five matches. This indicates a level of consistency that could give them the edge in their opening fixture. On the other hand, Toulouse will be looking to improve upon their recent form, which includes three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. However, their position in the standings raises concerns about their overall stability. They will need to translate their recent success into the new season, but they face a challenging opponent right out of the gate. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Lille, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is Lille's likelihood of scoring first, which may significantly influence the match's outcome. A potential caveat for Lille is the pressure of performing as the favourite, especially in a new season where expectations are high. For more details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lille leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Toulouse and Lille, Lille has won 7 times, Toulouse has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a lopsided trend, with Lille often securing their victories by a comfortable margin, including a 4-0 win and two other matches with a 2-goal differential. Toulouse's wins have been less frequent and typically narrow, with only one match ending in a scoreline that favored them significantly. The last time Toulouse defeated Lille was in 2024, highlighting a challenging period for them in this matchup.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | WD |
| 3 | Lille | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Estac Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 16 | Toulouse | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 17 |  Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToulouse have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Toulouse 0-2 and lost to Toulouse 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 10L from the last 24 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lille have won 9 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Angers 0-2 and drew with Everton 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 7L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersToulouse3
Lille3
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
