Mārupe vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mārupe vs Super Nova 2
Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win against Super Nova 2, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Mārupe has shown a slightly better form this season, accumulating 22 points from 15 matches with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses. Their goal difference of +2 indicates a balanced offensive and defensive performance, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. In their last five matches, they have managed two wins, highlighting a potential resurgence in form. On the other hand, Super Nova 2 is positioned just behind in 7th place with 20 points from the same number of games. Their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses reflects a more inconsistent performance throughout the season. With a goal difference of -2, they have scored 21 goals but conceded 23, which suggests vulnerabilities in their defence. Their recent form includes only one win in the last five matches, which may hinder their confidence heading into this fixture. The model gives Mārupe a win probability of approximately 55%, while Super Nova 2's chances sit at around 25%. The key market percentage indicates that Mārupe is favoured to win by a slight margin. However, Mārupe's recent inconsistency could pose a risk if they fail to convert their chances. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Mārupe have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Mārupe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mārupe vs Super Nova 2| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.55 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.44 | 2.80 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 2.53 | |
| 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.35 | 2.77 | 1.51 | 2.32 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.30 | — | — | |
| 2.18 | 3.44 | 2.85 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.42 | 2.59 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.77 | 1.52 | 2.22 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Mārupe leads 1-0)Mārupe has a head-to-head record of 1 win and 0 draws against Super Nova 2, with Super Nova 2 yet to secure a victory. The lone match between these teams ended with Mārupe winning 1-0, indicating a tightly contested game with a narrow scoreline. This suggests that encounters between them have been close, with Mārupe managing to edge out Super Nova 2 in their only meeting. Super Nova 2 will be looking for a better performance in future fixtures to change this record.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Mārupe | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 25 | WLLWL |
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 | LWLDL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMārupe have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Super Nova 2 2-1 and lost to Leevon / PPK 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 2D 16L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Super Nova 2 have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Super Nova 2 2-1 and beat JFK Ventspils 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 6L from the last 17 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMārupe
No reported absences
Super Nova 2
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mārupe average 1.4 goals per match at home; Super Nova 2 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Mārupe have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 40% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. Mārupe player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.