Molde vs Aalesund Prediction, Tips & Odds
Molde vs Aalesund
Match Preview
The model favours Molde to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place, Molde has demonstrated solid form this season with ten wins from 19 matches, accumulating 33 points. Their goal difference of +9 reflects a relatively strong attack, having scored 38 goals while conceding 29. In their last five matches, they have achieved four victories and one draw, showcasing their ability to perform consistently. On the other hand, Aalesund is struggling in the relegation zone, positioned 15th with just 18 points from 19 games. With three wins, nine draws, and seven losses, their record indicates a lack of decisive performances. Scoring 30 goals while conceding 43 highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, resulting in a goal difference of -13. Their recent form shows two wins and three losses in the last five matches, which may contribute to their ongoing challenges. According to our model, Molde has a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Aalesund manages to tighten their defense and capitalize on any mistakes, they could pose a threat to Molde's aspirations. The full method, which relies on an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.6% probability.
Molde have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Molde win as the most likely scoreline at 10.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Molde are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Molde vs Aalesund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.33 | 5.55 | 7.00 | 1.17 | 3.96 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 1.29 | 6.00 | 7.50 | 1.20 | 4.33 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.34 | 5.77 | 7.74 | 1.22 | 4.40 | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.42 | 6.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 5.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.35 | 3.00 | |
| 1.36 | 5.75 | 6.50 | 1.20 | 4.33 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 1.36 | 5.72 | 7.21 | 1.17 | 3.96 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 1.35 | 5.30 | 7.20 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.00 | 1.18 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Molde leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Molde and Aalesund, Molde has won 6 times, Aalesund has won once, and there have been no draws. The scorelines indicate a largely one-sided rivalry, with Molde often securing comfortable victories; they have won by at least two goals on four occasions. Aalesund's single victory came in May 2023, while their last win prior to that was not in the recent memory of the series. Overall, the head-to-head record suggests that Molde has had a strong upper hand in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 | Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMolde have won 9 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Molde 3-3 and lost to Molde 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 10L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aalesund have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Viking 2-1 and beat Langevag 0-13.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 13L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMolde
No reported absences
Aalesund
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Rohit Saggi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Rohit Saggi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Molde have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Aalesund 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Molde have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Molde player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
