Nõmme United vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours Nõmme United with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Kuressaare. Currently positioned 7th in the Meistriliiga, Nõmme United has had a challenging season with 6 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses. However, they have managed to score 34 goals while conceding 43, reflecting a negative goal difference of -9. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, having won only 2 of their last 5 matches, but they remain a more potent attacking side compared to their opponents. Kuressaare sits just below them in 9th place with 5 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses. They have struggled offensively, scoring only 17 goals so far this season, while conceding 30, resulting in a goal difference of -13. Their recent performances highlight a lack of winning momentum, with just one victory in their last five matches, making it difficult for them to climb the standings or find confidence ahead of this fixture. According to the model, Nõmme United has a win probability of 51.9%, with a 23.8% chance of a draw, and a 24.3% likelihood of a Kuressaare victory. The expectation of over 2.5 goals is high at 63.9%, and both teams to score stands at 64.0%. One caveat for Nõmme United is their inconsistency, which could lead to an unexpected result. The full method used in this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Nõmme United have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nõmme United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.35 | 1.48 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.43 | 2.54 | |
| 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 1.94 | 3.79 | 3.50 | 1.51 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.34 | 3.06 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.56 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.43 | 2.59 | |
| 1.94 | 3.65 | 3.25 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.25 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.52 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 2.15 | 1.33 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In the last eight matches between Nõmme United and Kuressaare, both teams have won two games each, while four matches ended in draws. This record indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side dominating the other. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and some more decisive results, including a 4-1 victory for Kuressaare. The frequent draws, particularly in the league matches, suggest that these encounters are often closely contested. Nõmme United's most recent win over Kuressaare was in February 2023, highlighting that both teams have had opportunities to claim victory in recent meetings.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 36 | LWWLW |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 4 |  Paide | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 32 | LWDWW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 26 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 26 | LWWWD |
| 7 | Nõmme United | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 25 | WWLWL |
| 8 |  Laagri | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 25 | WWLLL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 | DLLLD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 20 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 13 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 3-2 and lost to Nõmme United 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 2D 14L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 3-2 and lost to Vaprus 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 16L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.2 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Nõmme United have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 45% of their matches and averaging 2.2 goals per game. Nõmme United player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.