Nõmme United vs Tammeka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Tammeka
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tammeka currently sits in 6th place, just above Nõmme United in the standings. With 26 points from 18 matches, they have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference of -5 suggests that while they have struggled defensively, they have been effective enough going forward, scoring 21 goals this season. In contrast, Nõmme United is positioned 7th with 25 points from 21 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 1 draw, and 12 losses highlights their inconsistency, reflected in a goal difference of -8. Although Nõmme United has shown some improvement recently, notching three wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has left room for concern, particularly in defensive stability. The model indicates a win probability of 45% for Tammeka, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage suggests that Tammeka is favoured to win based on recent form and standings. However, Nõmme United’s recent form could pose a challenge, and if they can harness their momentum, they may disrupt Tammeka’s plans. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Tammeka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.40 | 1.38 | 2.85 | 1.33 | 2.85 | |
| 2.47 | 3.54 | 2.36 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 2.84 | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.33 | 2.88 | 1.30 | 3.30 | |
| 2.57 | 3.61 | 2.43 | 1.43 | 2.70 | — | — | |
| 2.32 | 3.47 | 2.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.35 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.47 | 3.54 | 2.36 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 2.90 | |
| 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.32 | 1.36 | 2.85 | 1.32 | 2.95 | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 2.32 | 3.70 | 2.57 | 1.34 | 2.82 | 1.34 | 3.00 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 1.29 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Tammeka leads 4-1)In the last seven encounters between Nõmme United and Tammeka, Tammeka leads with four wins, while Nõmme United has one win and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but Tammeka has secured three victories by a margin of two goals or more, including a notable 6-0 win in a friendly. Nõmme United's lone victory was a narrow 2-1 win, suggesting that while Tammeka has been more successful, some matches have been closely contested. The most recent draw was a low-scoring affair, highlighting the potential for tight results in their matchups.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 | Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 11. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 3-2 and lost to Nõmme United 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 19L from the last 37 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Tammeka have won 9 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Tammeka 0-2 and lost to Flora Tallinn 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 3D 14L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Tammeka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Frischer has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Frischer to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.3 goals per match at home; Tammeka 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 53% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.