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Paide vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds

Paide vs Vaprus

MeistriliigaRegular Season - 22
Paide
#4 · Meistriliiga
WDWLW
VS
Paide linnastaadion, Paide (1,000)
Vaprus
#5 · Meistriliiga
DWLWW

Match Preview

The model favours Paide to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paide currently sits in fourth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 32 points from 20 matches with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +4 reflects a solid attacking presence, having scored 32 goals while conceding 28. Recent form indicates they are in good shape, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Vaprus is positioned fifth, just below Paide, with 26 points from the same number of matches. Their record shows 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal difference of -10. Vaprus has struggled defensively this season, conceding 38 goals while only managing to score 28. Their recent form is concerning, having won just two of their last five matches, with three losses, which may impact their confidence going into this encounter. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Paide, while Vaprus has a 25% chance of winning, with a 20% likelihood of a draw. One caveat to consider is Vaprus's potential to pull off an upset, especially if they manage to improve their defensive cohesion. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-3)
7 Paide0 Draw3 Vaprus
06 May
Paide
2-0
Vaprus
Cup
07 Mar
Vaprus
3-2
Paide
Meistriliiga
Nov 25
Paide
3-0
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
Aug 25
Vaprus
1-0
Paide
Meistriliiga
Jun 25
Vaprus
1-2
Paide
Meistriliiga
Apr 25
Paide
1-0
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
Oct 24
Vaprus
0-1
Paide
Meistriliiga
Aug 24
Paide
1-0
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
Jun 24
Paide
0-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
Mar 24
Vaprus
0-3
Paide
Meistriliiga

In the last 10 encounters between Paide and Vaprus, Paide has won 7 times while Vaprus has secured 3 victories, with no matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, though Paide has achieved several convincing wins, including a 3-0 and a 3-2. Vaprus's wins have been narrower, with a 1-0 victory being their only low-scoring success against Paide. The last time Vaprus triumphed in this matchup was in March 2026, suggesting a slight edge for Paide in recent meetings.

Meistriliiga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
FC Levadia Tallinn
20145150173347
DWLDW
2
Flora Tallinn
20130740211939
WLWWL
3
Kalju Nomme
21115538172138
WDWDD
4
Paide
2110563328535
WLWDW
5
Vaprus
2183102939-1027
DLWLW
6
Tammeka
198292231-926
LLWWW
8
Laagri
2181123035-525
LWWLL
9
Kuressaare
2153131934-1518
LDLLL
10
Trans Narva
2151151748-3116
WWLLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
PaideHome
6W1D3L
10 playedGF 13 · GA 91.90 pts/game
VaprusAway
3W1D6L
10 playedGF 10 · GA 211.00 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
PaideVaprus
1.71Goals p.g.1.71
1.31Goals conceded p.g.1.87
29%Clean sheets19%
49%Win rate39%
3.03Avg goals in match3.58
Paide
Recent Form

Paide have won 13 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kuressaare 1-0 and beat Zira 1-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 9L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: PaideAll competitions
02 Aug
Paide
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
30 Jul
Zira
1-1
Paide
UEFA Europa Conference League
23 Jul
Paide
1-0
Zira
UEFA Europa Conference League
19 Jul
Laagri
5-2
Paide
Meistriliiga
16 Jul
Paide
3-0
Hegelmann Litauen
UEFA Europa Conference League
09 Jul
Hegelmann Litauen
1-1
Paide
UEFA Europa Conference League
17
Win
49%
9
Draw
26%
9
Lost
26%
Vaprus
Recent Form

Vaprus have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Tabasalu Ulasabat 1-4 and lost to Trans Narva 3-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 15L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: VaprusAll competitions
02 Aug
Vaprus
1-1
FC Levadia Tallinn
Meistriliiga
21 Jul
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1-4
Vaprus
Cup
18 Jul
Trans Narva
3-1
Vaprus
Meistriliiga
11 Jul
Vaprus
5-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
26 Jun
Vaprus
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
16 Jun
Vaprus
1-2
Flora Tallinn
Meistriliiga
12
Win
39%
4
Draw
13%
15
Lost
48%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Paide

No reported absences

Vaprus

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.