Paide vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs Vaprus


Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paide currently sits in fourth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 32 points from 20 matches with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +4 reflects a solid attacking presence, having scored 32 goals while conceding 28. Recent form indicates they are in good shape, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Vaprus is positioned fifth, just below Paide, with 26 points from the same number of matches. Their record shows 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal difference of -10. Vaprus has struggled defensively this season, conceding 38 goals while only managing to score 28. Their recent form is concerning, having won just two of their last five matches, with three losses, which may impact their confidence going into this encounter. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Paide, while Vaprus has a 25% chance of winning, with a 20% likelihood of a draw. One caveat to consider is Vaprus's potential to pull off an upset, especially if they manage to improve their defensive cohesion. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-3)



















In the last 10 encounters between Paide and Vaprus, Paide has won 7 times while Vaprus has secured 3 victories, with no matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, though Paide has achieved several convincing wins, including a 3-0 and a 3-2. Vaprus's wins have been narrower, with a 1-0 victory being their only low-scoring success against Paide. The last time Vaprus triumphed in this matchup was in March 2026, suggesting a slight edge for Paide in recent meetings.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 50 | 17 | 33 | 47 | DWLDW | |
| 2 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 39 | WLWWL | |
| 3 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 38 | WDWDD | |
| 4 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 35 | WLWDW | |
| 5 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 27 | DLWLW | |
| 6 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 | LLWWW | |
| 8 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 25 | LWWLL | |
| 9 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 | LDLLL | |
| 10 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 48 | -31 | 16 | WWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Paide have won 13 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kuressaare 1-0 and beat Zira 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 9L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













Vaprus have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Tabasalu Ulasabat 1-4 and lost to Trans Narva 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 15L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Paide
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.

