Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Kalju Nomme sits in a strong third position in the Meistriliiga, having secured 35 points from 20 matches with a record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +17 highlights a solid defensive performance, allowing just 16 goals this season. With two wins in their last five matches, they have shown resilience, particularly in the face of recent draws. In contrast, Trans Narva struggles at the bottom of the table, currently in 10th place with only 13 points from 20 games. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 15 losses reflects ongoing challenges, particularly in their defensive capabilities, having conceded 47 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -32. With just one win in their last five matches, their form has been concerning, which compounds their difficulties in climbing the standings. The model indicates a strong probability of victory for Kalju Nomme, supported by their superior league standing and recent form. However, an unexpected surge in performance from Trans Narva could present an upset, particularly if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Kalju. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.43 | 1.51 | 2.26 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.25 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 5.79 | 4.30 | 1.44 | 1.51 | 2.26 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 5.75 | 4.10 | 1.47 | 1.58 | 2.17 | 1.68 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 5.20 | 4.30 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 2.15 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Trans Narva and Kalju Nomme, Kalju Nomme leads with 4 wins, while Trans Narva has won 3 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some decisive victories, notably Trans Narva's 4-1 win and Kalju Nomme's 3-0 triumph. The matches have often been competitive, with several games ending in draws, suggesting that neither side has consistently dominated. The last time Trans Narva won against Kalju Nomme was in January 2025, hinting at a slight advantage for Kalju Nomme in recent encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 50 | 17 | 33 | 47 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 39 | WLWWL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 38 | WDWDD |
| 4 |  Paide | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 35 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 | LDLLL |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 21 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 48 | -31 | 16 | WWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTrans Narva have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Trans Narva 0-0 and beat Trans Narva 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 18L from the last 32 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shelbourne 5-2 and drew with Kuressaare 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 8L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTrans Narva
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Trans Narva average 1.3 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.