FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Nõmme United, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. FC Levadia Tallinn currently sits at the top of the Meistriliiga standings with 46 points from 19 matches, boasting an impressive record of 14 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss. With a goal difference of +33, they have scored 49 goals while conceding only 16, showcasing their strong offensive and defensive capabilities. In contrast, Nõmme United finds itself in 7th place with 25 points from 20 matches. Their season has been challenging, with 8 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses, resulting in a negative goal difference of -7. Although they have shown some resilience recently, winning four of their last five matches, their overall performance has been inconsistent, which could impact their chances against a dominant Levadia Tallinn side. According to the model's analysis, FC Levadia Tallinn has a high win probability in this matchup. However, one caveat is that if Nõmme United can maintain their recent form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Levadia, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (5.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.10 | 7.20 | 15.25 | 1.22 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 1.92 | |
| 1.08 | 8.50 | 14.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.28 | 3.50 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.10 | 7.20 | 15.00 | 1.22 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.16 | 6.30 | 11.25 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 5-1)In the last eight matches between FC Levadia Tallinn and Nõmme United, FC Levadia Tallinn has won five times, there have been two draws, and Nõmme United has won once. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for FC Levadia Tallinn, with several matches featuring heavy victories, including a 6-0 win. While Nõmme United managed a notable 4-2 victory in a friendly, their overall results reflect a tendency to struggle against FC Levadia Tallinn, particularly in competitive fixtures, as they have not won in their last six encounters in the league.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 50 | 17 | 33 | 47 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 39 | WLWWL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 38 | WDWDD |
| 4 |  Paide | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 35 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Vaprus | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 6 |  Tammeka | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 7 | Nõmme United | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 25 | LWWLW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 | LDLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 21 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 48 | -31 | 16 | WWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Levadia Tallinn have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 1-3 and beat FC Levadia Tallinn 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 7D 5L from the last 32 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nõmme United have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flora Tallinn 1-2 and beat Laagri 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 2D 14L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn average 2.5 goals per match at home; Nõmme United 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 62% of their matches and averaging 2.5 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.