NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Tips & Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
Match Preview
The model favours NEC Nijmegen to win against Fortuna Sittard, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 11th in the Eredivisie, NEC Nijmegen has had a challenging start to the season with only two wins from seven matches. Their recent form shows a struggle to secure victories, with three losses and two draws in the last five fixtures. The team has scored 12 goals but conceded 13, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited. In contrast, Fortuna Sittard sits higher in the standings at 6th place, having garnered 13 points from their seven matches. Their record includes four wins, one draw, and two losses, showcasing a more consistent performance overall. However, their recent form has been mixed, with four wins and a loss in the last five matches, suggesting they are capable of competing but may also be susceptible to pressure. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a win probability of 65.5%, with a 19.4% chance of a draw and 15.1% for a Fortuna Sittard victory. While the prediction leans towards NEC Nijmegen, the caveat is their recent struggles, which could dampen their home advantage. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 NEC Nijmegen win as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 1.57 | 4.60 | 4.75 | 1.36 | 3.10 | — | — | |
| 1.64 | 4.31 | 4.70 | 1.40 | 2.96 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 3.95 | 3.89 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.65 | 4.33 | 4.75 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.65 | 4.43 | 4.74 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.45 | 5.00 | 1.39 | 3.05 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (NEC Nijmegen leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard, the record stands at 4 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Fortuna Sittard. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; five encounters ended with a margin of just one goal. However, NEC Nijmegen has secured a couple of heavy wins, including a 4-1 victory, while Fortuna Sittard's wins have been by narrower margins. The frequency of draws suggests that both teams have had their share of tightly fought matches, but neither side has dominated the other historically.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 14 | WWDDL |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 | DWLWW |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNEC Nijmegen have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with NEC Nijmegen 1-1 and drew with NEC Nijmegen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 11D 12L from the last 37 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fortuna Sittard have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Genk 1-2 and beat Willem II 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 12L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Fortuna Sittard
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Alex Bos has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Alex Bos to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
NEC Nijmegen have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Fortuna Sittard 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 2.31 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
