New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders Prediction, Tips & Odds
New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win this match against Seattle Sounders, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in second place in the standings, New England has demonstrated strong form throughout the season, with 14 wins from 26 matches and a solid goal difference of +12. Their recent performance shows four wins in their last five games, highlighting their ability to secure points consistently. In contrast, Seattle Sounders are positioned tenth and have struggled to find their rhythm this season. With only eight wins in 25 matches, they have managed to draw eight times but have also suffered nine losses. Their recent form is concerning, as they have only one win in their last five matches, with four draws indicating a lack of decisive victories. The model gives New England Revolution a 53.3% chance of winning, with a 23.2% chance of a draw and a 23.5% chance for Seattle to take all three points. One potential caveat for New England is the possibility of complacency, as they face a lower-ranked opponent. For a full understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.91 | 3.76 | 3.50 | 1.46 | 2.38 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.98 | 4.06 | 3.54 | 1.53 | 2.61 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 4.05 | 3.60 | 1.55 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In the last 10 matches between New England Revolution and Seattle Sounders, both teams have secured 2 wins each, while 5 matches ended in draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several high-scoring draws, including a notable 3-3 tie in 2019 and another in 2017. The matches have generally featured a mix of low-scoring and high-scoring outcomes, with New England's 5-0 victory in 2014 standing out as the most lopsided result. The last win for either side came in 2024 for Seattle, suggesting a balanced contest in recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 42 | DLWWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew England Revolution have won 13 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chicago Fire 1-0 and lost to Seattle Sounders 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 14L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Seattle Sounders have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Dallas 1-0 and beat New England Revolution 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 9D 14L from the last 42 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
Seattle Sounders4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersNew England Revolution4
Seattle Sounders4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tori Penso has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New England Revolution have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Seattle Sounders 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
