New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
Match Preview
The model favours New York Red Bulls to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 5th place, the Red Bulls have accumulated 22 points from 15 matches, with a record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses. Their offensive output has been decent, scoring 25 goals, though they have conceded 32, resulting in a negative goal difference of -7. Recent form shows they have secured three wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential resurgence. On the other hand, Charlotte is just behind in the standings at 6th place with 21 points, having a similar record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. They have scored slightly fewer goals than the Red Bulls at 24 but have a better defensive record, conceding only 23 times, which gives them a positive goal difference of 1. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, with only two wins in their last five matches, which could be a concern heading into this fixture. The model output gives New York Red Bulls a win probability of approximately 55%, while Charlotte's chances stand at around 30%. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals, which is projected at 60%. A potential caveat is the Red Bulls' defensive vulnerabilities, which could allow Charlotte to capitalize on counter-attacks. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
New York Red Bulls have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. New York Red Bulls are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 4.00 | 2.76 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.17 | 3.80 | 2.88 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.23 | 3.95 | 3.00 | 1.42 | 2.96 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.69 | 2.76 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.88 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.18 | 3.65 | 3.00 | 1.43 | 2.70 | 1.37 | 2.85 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 4.00 | 2.85 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.82 |
Superbet | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.92 | 1.44 | 2.82 | 1.40 | 2.80 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York Red Bulls leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between New York Red Bulls and Charlotte, the record stands at 4 wins for New York Red Bulls, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Charlotte. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with both teams achieving victories. Notably, the scorelines reveal a mix of outcomes, including a significant 6-1 win for Charlotte, which highlights the potential for high-scoring matches. However, several fixtures ended in draws and narrow margins, such as the 1-1 results. The recent meetings suggest a balance, with both sides capable of winning, although New York Red Bulls have seen more success overall in this sample.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 39 | LWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 33 | DLWLW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 33 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 33 | DLWLL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 29 | WDLWL |
| 6 | Charlotte | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 22 | LLWDW |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Union | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 12 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with New York Red Bulls 1-1 and beat New York Red Bulls 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 11L from the last 24 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Charlotte have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New England Revolution 1-0 and lost to Nashville SC 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 9L from the last 23 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersNew York Red Bulls3
Charlotte2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Rosendo Mendoza has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Rosendo Mendoza to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Charlotte 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York Red Bulls have generated 1.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York Red Bulls player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
