New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Match Preview
The model favours the New York Red Bulls to win against San Diego, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 8th in the standings, the Red Bulls have recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses this season, accumulating 33 points. Their goal difference stands at -14, with 34 goals scored and 48 conceded. Recent form shows a mixed bag of results, with two wins in their last five matches, indicating some potential for improvement as they seek to climb the table. San Diego, sitting just below in 11th place, has also struggled this season with a record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, totaling 31 points. Their goal difference is even, with 44 goals scored and 44 conceded. However, their recent form is concerning, having only secured one win in their last five matches, which may hinder their chances against a slightly more stable New York side. The model gives the New York Red Bulls a win probability of 44.6%, while the likelihood of a draw is 23.9% and a San Diego victory stands at 31.5%. One key market to watch is the over 2.5 goals market, which has a strong probability of 67.8%. A caveat to consider is that if San Diego manages to find their scoring form, they could pose a significant threat. For a thorough understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.9% probability.
New York Red Bulls have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New York Red Bulls are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.51 | 3.82 | 2.41 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.31 | 3.08 | |
| 2.55 | 4.10 | 2.38 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.57 | 4.03 | 2.52 | 1.38 | 3.19 | — | — | |
| 2.42 | 3.74 | 2.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.30 | 3.20 | |
| 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
Betano | 2.57 | 3.85 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 3.20 | 1.31 | 3.25 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.40 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 1.29 | 3.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (San Diego leads 1-0)In the only recorded match between New York Red Bulls and San Diego, San Diego emerged victorious with a dominant 6-0 scoreline. This result indicates a one-sided contest, with San Diego displaying a significant offensive advantage. The absence of draws or wins for New York Red Bulls in this fixture highlights their struggle against San Diego, and the heavy defeat suggests that they will need to improve substantially if they are to compete more effectively in future encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 36 | LLWLW |
| 12 | San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 34 | DDLDD |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 8 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 0-2 and beat San Diego 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 20L from the last 39 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
San Diego have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New York Red Bulls 4-1 and drew with Austin 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 16L from the last 39 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
2 playersNew York Red Bulls1
San Diego1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Malik Badawi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Malik Badawi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; San Diego 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York Red Bulls have generated 1.52 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York Red Bulls player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
