Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur
Match Preview
The model favours Newcastle Jets to win against Macarthur with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Newcastle Jets start the season in a strong position, currently ranked 3rd. While they have yet to play a match this season, their recent form shows some promise, with one win and two draws in their last five matches. The Jets will look to build on their momentum as they aim for a positive start. On the other hand, Macarthur finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 11th place, also yet to play a match this season. Their recent form indicates struggles, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their chances as they seek to make an impact in the new season. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Newcastle Jets, reflecting their better position and recent form. However, a caveat exists; if Macarthur can capitalize on any early-season jitters from the Jets, they may spring a surprise. For more details on our prediction methodology, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where we employ an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Newcastle Jets have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Newcastle Jets are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.20 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.25 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.08 | 3.94 | 3.32 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.39 | 2.77 | |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.42 | 2.59 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Macarthur leads 4-3)In the last 10 meetings between Newcastle Jets and Macarthur, Macarthur leads with 4 wins, while Newcastle Jets has 3 wins, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; notably, there have been 5 games decided by a single goal. The results include a mix of high-scoring encounters, such as the 4-5 and 3-4 matches, but also feature some low-scoring outcomes, like the 1-0 and 2-2 draws. The last win for Newcastle Jets against Macarthur was in October 2024, highlighting a slight edge for Macarthur in recent matchups.
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sydney | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 2 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 3 |  Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Central Coast Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Perth Glory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  Melbourne City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Macarthur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewcastle Jets have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Newcastle Jets 1-1 and beat Newcastle Jets 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 4L from the last 20 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Macarthur have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Macarthur 1-1 and beat Uni Azzurri 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 8L from the last 18 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNewcastle Jets
No reported absences
Macarthur
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Newcastle Jets have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Macarthur 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Newcastle Jets have generated 1.78 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Newcastle Jets player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
