Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew Prediction, Tips & Odds
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
Match Preview
The model favours Orlando City SC to win this matchup against Columbus Crew, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 7th in the league, Orlando has accumulated 34 points from 26 matches, with a record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses. Their recent form shows improvement, having secured three wins in their last five matches, which highlights their potential for scoring, as they have netted 46 goals this season. In contrast, Columbus Crew finds themselves in 13th place with 26 points, having won 7, drawn 5, and lost 14 of their 26 games. Their form has been inconsistent, also winning three of their last five matches, but they have struggled overall, as indicated by their goal difference of -5. The Crew's offensive output has been limited, scoring only 37 goals this season. The model gives Orlando City a 46.1% chance of winning, while Columbus Crew has a 29.6% chance. The projected total goals for this match is likely to exceed 2.5, with a probability of 66.7%. However, a potential caveat for Orlando could be their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 60 goals this season. The full methodology, which uses expected goals and actual results to inform predictions, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Orlando City SC have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Orlando City SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.04 | 3.88 | 3.05 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 1.34 | 2.93 | |
| 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 2.10 | 4.03 | 3.23 | 1.43 | 2.95 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 3.59 | 2.86 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.80 | |
| 2.10 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.95 | 3.10 | 1.42 | 2.92 | 1.38 | 2.92 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Columbus Crew leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew stands at 3 wins for Orlando, 3 draws, and 4 wins for Columbus. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and only a slight edge for Columbus. Scorelines have varied, with both teams achieving narrow victories, such as Orlando's 3-1 win and Columbus's 4-3 win, suggesting that matches are often closely contested. Notably, Orlando has not won against Columbus in their last three encounters, with Columbus securing two victories during this period.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 41 | WDWLL |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOrlando City SC have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 3-2 and beat Orlando City SC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 19L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Columbus Crew have won 5 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include beat Columbus Crew 0-2 and lost to Orlando City SC 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 19L from the last 46 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedOrlando City SC4-4-2Confirmed
Columbus Crew4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
3 playersOrlando City SC2
Columbus Crew1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Rosendo Mendoza has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Orlando City SC have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Columbus Crew 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Orlando City SC have generated 1.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Orlando City SC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
