PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Tips & Odds
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
Match Preview
The model favours PAOK to win against Aris Thessalonikis with a projected scoreline of 2-1. PAOK currently sits at the top of the Super League 1 standings, having won both of their opening matches, scoring six goals while conceding just one. Their strong goal difference of plus five indicates a potent attack and solid defence, setting a confident tone for the season. On the other hand, Aris Thessalonikis also boasts a perfect record with two wins from two matches, placing them third in the league. They have scored five goals and conceded three, reflecting their ability to find the net but also indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form includes four wins in their last five matches, which suggests they are in good shape heading into this fixture. According to the model, PAOK has a 56.8% probability of winning, while a draw is at 25.0% and Aris Thessalonikis at 18.2%. One caveat is that while PAOK has started strongly, any lapse in defensive concentration could allow Aris to capitalize on their attacking capabilities. For a detailed understanding of how these predictions were derived, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
PAOK have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 PAOK win as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature PAOK clean sheets, in line with their 40% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. PAOK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.43 | 4.20 | 6.60 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.80 | |
| 1.45 | 4.33 | 6.60 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 2.01 | 1.70 | |
| 1.47 | 4.10 | 6.50 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.48 | 4.53 | 6.71 | 1.94 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 3.85 | 5.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.25 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.48 | 4.30 | 6.26 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
| 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.53 | 4.05 | 6.60 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.10 | 7.00 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis, both teams have won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in draws. This record indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side consistently dominating the other. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, highlighted by five matches finishing in draws or with a one-goal margin, such as the 0-0 draws and the 1-0 wins. The absence of heavy victories suggests that these matchups often result in closely contested games, making it difficult for either team to establish a clear upper hand in recent encounters.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 | PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 13 |  Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPAOK have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with OFI 0-0 and beat Levadiakos 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 8L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aris Thessalonikis have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Aris Thessalonikis 5-0 and beat Kalamata 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 6L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPAOK
No reported absences
Aris Thessalonikis
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PAOK have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Aris Thessalonikis 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PAOK have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PAOK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
