Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction, Tips & Odds
Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun
Match Preview
The model favours Yunnan Yukun to win against Qingdao Jonoon, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Yunnan Yukun sits in a strong fourth position in the league, having accumulated 21 points from 15 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid attack, scoring 27 goals, which places them among the higher-scoring teams in the league. Despite a mixed recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests they are capable of securing a vital away victory. In contrast, Qingdao Jonoon is struggling in 14th place with only 10 points from their 15 fixtures. Their season has been challenging, as evidenced by their goal difference of -3, indicating they have conceded more goals than they have scored. With a recent form of one win and four losses in their last five matches, they will need to significantly improve their performance to compete with Yunnan Yukun. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a win probability of approximately 57%, with the expected score at 2-1. A potential caveat for this prediction is Qingdao Jonoon's home advantage, which could play a crucial role in the match. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results across the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Yunnan Yukun have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Yunnan Yukun are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.72 | 3.70 | 2.22 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 2.75 | 3.66 | 2.26 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.85 | 3.92 | 2.31 | 1.56 | 2.49 | — | — | |
| 2.48 | 3.20 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.84 | 3.77 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 1.49 | 2.43 | 1.42 | 2.60 | |
| 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.22 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
Superbet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 1.48 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Yunnan Yukun leads 2-1)The head-to-head record shows Qingdao Jonoon winning 1 match, Yunnan Yukun winning 2, with no draws in their last 3 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mixed bag, with one heavy win for each side: Qingdao's 5-1 victory contrasts with Yunnan's 3-1 and 1-0 wins. This suggests that while Yunnan has the upper hand overall, the matches have featured both one-sided and tighter contests. Qingdao has not beaten Yunnan in the last two meetings, with their last win occurring in 2025.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 42 | DDWWL |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 28 | DLWLW |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 25 | WLLWD |
| 4 |  Shandong Luneng | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 24 | WLWLD |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 24 | LWLDL |
| 6 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 14 | Qingdao Jonoon | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 14 | DWLLL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 8 | WLWDL |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 8 | LLDDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQingdao Jonoon have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Chengdu Better City 1-1 and beat Yunnan Yukun 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 11L from the last 27 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Yunnan Yukun have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Yunnan Yukun 4-3 and lost to Qingdao Jonoon 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 10L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersQingdao Jonoon
No reported absences
Yunnan Yukun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Qingdao Jonoon have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Yunnan Yukun 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Yunnan Yukun have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Yunnan Yukun player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
