Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win against Shenyang Urban, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned fifth in the league, Shandong Luneng has accumulated 18 points from their 15 matches, with a record of seven wins, three draws, and five losses. Their goal difference stands at zero, indicating a balanced offensive and defensive output, with 25 goals scored and 25 conceded. Despite a mixed form recently, their overall season performance suggests they are more capable than their opponents. In contrast, Shenyang Urban is eighth in the standings, having earned 17 points from 15 matches with five wins, two draws, and eight losses. Their goal difference of -3 reflects a struggle in both scoring and defending, having netted 20 goals while conceding 23. Although they have shown some improvement with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistency remains a concern. The model gives Shandong Luneng a win probability of approximately 55%, suggesting they are favoured to secure the three points. However, a potential pitfall for Shandong could be their defensive vulnerability, as they have recently allowed teams to score freely. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Shenyang Urban have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Shenyang Urban are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.57 | 3.75 | 2.36 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.65 | 3.86 | 2.43 | 1.48 | 2.82 | 1.39 | 2.77 | |
| 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.37 | 1.47 | 2.52 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 37 | |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 24 | |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 | |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 21 | |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 18 | |
| 8 | Shenyang Urban | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 | |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Tianjin Teda | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 5 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShenyang Urban have won 7 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-2 and beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 9L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shandong Luneng have won 4 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shandong Luneng 1-0 and lost to Hangzhou Greentown 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 5L from the last 24 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShenyang Urban
No reported absences
Shandong Luneng
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shenyang Urban have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Shandong Luneng 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shenyang Urban have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shenyang Urban player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
