Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg
Match Preview
The model favours Red Bull Salzburg to win against TSV Hartberg, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Salzburg has shown resilience in their recent form, bouncing back with three wins after two early losses. This indicates a strong capability to recover and solidify their position in the league, despite the challenges faced early in the season. On the other hand, TSV Hartberg comes into this match with a commendable record, having secured three wins, one draw, and only one loss in their last five matches. This form demonstrates their competitiveness and ability to challenge stronger teams, which could pose a threat to Salzburg if they are not at their best. According to the model, Red Bull Salzburg has a win probability that supports their position as the favourite, while key metrics from the season could further bolster this prediction. However, one caveat is that if Hartberg can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Salzburg, they could disrupt the expected outcome. The full methodology, which utilizes an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Red Bull Salzburg have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Red Bull Salzburg win as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Red Bull Salzburg clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Red Bull Salzburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.30 | 5.10 | 9.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.75 | 1.93 | |
| 1.28 | 5.45 | 9.30 | 1.45 | 2.42 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.50 | 1.47 | 2.63 | — | — | |
| 1.26 | 5.98 | 9.59 | 1.50 | 2.57 | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.84 | 6.86 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 9.50 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.29 | 5.45 | 9.15 | 1.45 | 2.42 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 1.30 | 5.10 | 8.50 | 1.48 | 2.40 | 1.74 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.32 | 4.90 | 9.00 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Superbet | 1.31 | 5.30 | 7.90 | 1.51 | 2.40 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.25 | 9.00 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Red Bull Salzburg leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg, Red Bull Salzburg has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw, while TSV Hartberg has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided contest, with Red Bull Salzburg achieving several dominant wins, including a 5-1 victory and a 4-0 win. The matches have also featured a couple of closely contested draws, but overall, the lack of wins for TSV Hartberg highlights their struggles against Salzburg. The last time TSV Hartberg won against Salzburg dates back to the early fixtures in this matchup.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonRed Bull Salzburg have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 and lost to Red Bull Salzburg 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
TSV Hartberg have won 4 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Weiz 3-2 and beat Red Bull Salzburg 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 6L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRed Bull Salzburg
No reported absences
TSV Hartberg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Sadikovski has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Sadikovski to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Red Bull Salzburg have averaged 2.8 corners per match at home; TSV Hartberg 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Red Bull Salzburg have generated 1.46 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Red Bull Salzburg player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
