Riga FC II vs Rīgas FS II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga FC II vs Rīgas FS II
Match Preview
The model favours Riga FC II to win this match against Rīgas FS II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Riga FC II currently sits in 7th place in the 1. Liga, having played 22 matches with a record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. Their recent form has been solid, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating a resilient performance. They have scored 34 goals this season while conceding 37, reflecting a slightly negative goal difference but still showing the ability to compete. On the other hand, Rīgas FS II is struggling in 13th place, with only 4 wins and a concerning 15 losses from the same number of matches. They have managed to score 36 goals but have conceded a staggering 65, resulting in a goal difference of -29. Their recent form is troubling, with just one win and four losses in their last five matches, which further highlights their challenges this season. The model's output suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for Riga FC II, while Rīgas FS II has about a 15% chance of winning. A key market to watch is the odds for Riga FC II to win by a one-goal margin. However, a potential caveat is that if Rīgas FS II can exploit any defensive weaknesses, they could turn the tide. The full methodology behind this prediction, which analyzes expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Head to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Riga FC II leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Riga FC II and Rīgas FS II stands at 4 wins for Riga FC II, 2 draws, and 2 wins for Rīgas FS II. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, but Riga FC II has a slight edge, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure significant victories, including a 6-0 win. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight matches, as evidenced by the two draws and several narrow wins, yet Riga FC II's dominance in recent encounters is clear. Rīgas FS II last won against Riga FC II in August 2025, indicating a shift in momentum.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 96 | 18 | 78 | 60 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 53 | DDLWD |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 53 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 50 | WLWLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 41 | DWLLW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 33 | DWDWL |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 30 | DWDDW |
| 12 | Rīgas FS II | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 18 | WLLLW |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 16 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 23 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 70 | -53 | 6 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRiga FC II have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Riga FC II 5-0 and drew with Riga FC II 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 13L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Rīgas FS II have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rīgas FS II 0-1 and lost to Leevon / PPK 6-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 18L from the last 33 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiga FC II
No reported absences
Rīgas FS II
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.