Valmiera / BSS vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs JFK Ventspils
Match Preview
The model favours Valmiera / BSS to win against JFK Ventspils, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Valmiera / BSS sits comfortably in second place in the league, having amassed 52 points from 22 matches. Their strong season performance is highlighted by a solid goal difference of +37, with 61 goals scored and only 24 conceded. This indicates their attacking prowess and defensive solidity, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, JFK Ventspils is struggling in 12th place with just 15 points from the same number of matches. Their season has been challenging, reflected in their goal statistics of 21 goals for and 45 against, resulting in a goal difference of -24. With only three wins to their name, they have found it difficult to secure points consistently, which has led to a precarious position in the standings. According to the model, Valmiera / BSS has a high win probability for this match. While the prediction leans heavily in their favour, a potential caveat could be their recent form, which shows some inconsistency with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. For more details on the methodology, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model utilises expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform predictions. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has carefully considered these factors in reaching this conclusion.
Head to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record, Valmiera / BSS has won 1 match, while JFK Ventspils has not secured any wins or draws. The single match played resulted in a 2-0 victory for Valmiera / BSS, indicating a clear win with a two-goal margin. This suggests that Valmiera / BSS has had a strong performance in their previous encounter, with JFK Ventspils yet to find the net against them. The absence of draws in their history also points to a decisive outcome in their only meeting.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 96 | 18 | 78 | 60 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 53 | DDLWD |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 53 | DWWDW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 50 | WLWLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 41 | DWLLW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 33 | DWDWL |
| 12 |  Rīgas FS II | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 18 | WLLLW |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 16 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 23 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 70 | -53 | 6 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValmiera / BSS have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tukums II 2-2 and drew with Super Nova 2 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 8L from the last 35 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
JFK Ventspils have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tukums II 1-0 and lost to Metta / LU 7-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 10D 18L from the last 35 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersValmiera / BSS
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
