Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
Match Preview
The model favours Sao Paulo to win against Coritiba, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Sao Paulo currently sits in 12th place in the Serie A standings, just one point behind their opponents. Their season has been a mix of results, with seven wins, five draws, and eight losses from 20 matches. Notably, their goal difference of +2 indicates a slight edge in performance, with 25 goals scored and 23 conceded. Coritiba, positioned just above Sao Paulo in 11th place, has a similar record but with a less favourable goal difference of -3, having scored 25 goals but conceded 28. Their form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. Despite having a marginally better points tally, their recent struggles, including three losses in their last five games, could hinder their performance. The model gives Sao Paulo a win probability of around 55%, reflecting their slightly better form and home advantage. However, the potential for Coritiba to capitalize on defensive errors could alter the outcome. For more detail on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which outlines our in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. Coritiba average 1.3 goals per game.
Sao Paulo manage games at home, conceding just 0.95 goals per match. Coritiba score 1.26 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Sao Paulo have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Sao Paulo win as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sao Paulo clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Sao Paulo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.65 | 3.65 | 5.20 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 1.72 | 3.44 | 5.00 | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 1.73 | 3.30 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.78 | 3.53 | 5.29 | 2.15 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.42 | 4.65 | 2.01 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 5.50 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.77 | 3.54 | 5.14 | 2.11 | 1.76 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
| 1.71 | 3.55 | 4.90 | 1.98 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.80 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 2.10 | 1.78 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.80 | 2.01 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sao Paulo leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Sao Paulo and Coritiba, Sao Paulo has won 4 times, there have been 5 draws, and Coritiba has won once. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with nearly half of the encounters ending in draws. The scorelines show a tendency for close matches, with several fixtures finishing 1-1, and only a few instances of heavier wins, such as Sao Paulo's 3-1 victory in 2022. Coritiba's last win against Sao Paulo came in 2017, highlighting a struggle for them in this matchup over recent years.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Coritiba | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 37 | LWWDW |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 33 | WWLDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSao Paulo have won 13 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atletico-MG 2-0 and beat RB Bragantino 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 10D 11L from the last 39 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Coritiba have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Coritiba 2-3 and drew with Sao Paulo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 11D 9L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersSao Paulo3
Coritiba4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
C. Deretti has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sao Paulo have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Coritiba 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sao Paulo have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sao Paulo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
