Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS
Match Preview
The model favours Argentinos JRS to win against Sarmiento Junin, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Argentinos JRS currently sits in third place in the Liga Profesional Argentina, with a solid record of eight wins, five draws, and three losses from 16 matches. They have scored 17 goals while conceding only 13, resulting in a positive goal difference of four. Their recent form, with three wins and one draw in their last five matches, indicates a team that is both resilient and capable of capitalising on opportunities. In contrast, Sarmiento Junin is positioned in 11th place, having secured only six wins from their 16 matches, alongside one draw and nine losses. Their goal-scoring has been a challenge, with just 13 goals scored and 20 conceded, leading to a negative goal difference of seven. Their recent form has seen them struggle, with only two victories in their last five matches, highlighting potential vulnerabilities that Argentinos JRS could exploit. The model suggests that Argentinos JRS has a strong win probability, but it is essential to acknowledge that Sarmiento Junin could pose a threat, particularly if they manage to improve their attacking play. The full method used for this prediction, which analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has crafted this insight based on the data available, ensuring a data-driven approach to the match preview.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Sarmiento Junin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Argentinos JRS average 1.1 goals per game.
Sarmiento Junin manage games at home, conceding just 1.17 goals per match. Argentinos JRS score 1.05 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 21.2% probability.
Argentinos JRS have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Argentinos JRS win as the most likely scoreline at 21.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Argentinos JRS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.35 | 2.92 | 2.00 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.30 | 1.55 | |
| 4.25 | 2.93 | 2.02 | 2.85 | 1.33 | 2.40 | 1.49 | |
| 4.10 | 3.00 | 2.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.38 | 2.97 | 2.06 | 3.05 | 1.38 | — | — | |
| 4.00 | 2.80 | 2.05 | — | — | 2.30 | 1.55 | |
| 4.20 | 2.90 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| 4.32 | 2.98 | 2.06 | 2.85 | 1.33 | 2.40 | 1.51 | |
| 4.10 | 3.00 | 2.07 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.32 | 1.54 | |
Betano | 4.35 | 2.95 | 2.07 | 3.00 | 1.42 | 2.37 | 1.55 |
BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.00 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.40 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Sarmiento Junin and Argentinos JRS stands at 2 wins for Sarmiento, 3 draws, and 2 wins for Argentinos. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws, as three of the last seven encounters ended without a winner. The scorelines suggest a tendency towards low-scoring matches, with only two games featuring more than one goal. Argentinos last claimed victory over Sarmiento in December 2021, while Sarmiento has won more recently, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LDWDW |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LWDWW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | LWWWD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LWWWL |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | LDDDW |
| 3 | Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDWDW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSarmiento Junin have won 6 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sarmiento Junin 1-0 and lost to Sarmiento Junin 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 2D 9L from the last 18 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Argentinos JRS have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gimnasia L.P. 2-0 and beat Huracan 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 4L from the last 22 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSarmiento Junin
No reported absences
Argentinos JRS
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sarmiento Junin have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Argentinos JRS 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Argentinos JRS have generated 1.31 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Argentinos JRS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
