Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga
Match Preview
The model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF to win against Valerenga, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sarpsborg currently sits in 9th place in the Eliteserien standings, with a record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses from 17 matches. They have scored 20 goals while conceding 23, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Their recent form shows some resilience, with two wins and a draw in their last five matches. Valerenga, on the other hand, is positioned just below Sarpsborg in 11th place, having played the same number of matches but with slightly weaker results, recording 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. They have a higher goal tally of 28 but have conceded 34 goals, leading to a goal difference of -6. Their form is similar to Sarpsborg's, with two wins and a draw in the last five matches, but they have struggled defensively throughout the season. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Sarpsborg, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential pitfall could be Sarpsborg's inconsistency, especially if they fail to convert chances or if Valerenga capitalizes on any defensive lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Sarpsborg 08 FF are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.93 | 3.92 | 3.34 | 1.35 | 2.76 | 1.36 | 2.83 | |
| 1.90 | 4.33 | 3.25 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.46 | 1.42 | 2.97 | — | — | |
| 2.14 | 3.37 | 2.59 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.98 | 4.01 | 3.42 | 1.35 | 2.76 | 1.36 | 2.89 | |
| 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.38 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.42 | 2.77 | 1.38 | 2.82 |
Superbet | 1.97 | 3.85 | 3.35 | 1.39 | 2.85 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.30 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Valerenga leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga, Valerenga has won 5 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and more decisive victories, with Valerenga achieving a notable 4-0 win in their most recent encounter. There have been several high-scoring matches, such as the 5-3 friendly in favor of Valerenga, highlighting an ability for both teams to find the net. Sarpsborg's last victory over Valerenga was in April 2023, suggesting a competitive rivalry with no clear dominance from either side.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 | DDLLD |
| 11 | Valerenga | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 22 | DLDLL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSarpsborg 08 FF have won 9 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 and beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 8L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Valerenga have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Valerenga 2-2 and beat Christiania BK 2-7.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 12L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersSarpsborg 08 FF3
Valerenga3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Grotta has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Grotta to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Valerenga 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sarpsborg 08 FF have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sarpsborg 08 FF player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
