Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka
Match Preview
The model favours Shimizu S-pulse to win against Gamba Osaka, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shimizu S-pulse currently sits in 12th place in the J1 League standings, having accumulated 10 points from 8 matches. Their recent form has been promising, with three wins, one draw, and just one loss in their last five outings. Notably, they have scored 6 goals while conceding 8, indicating a slight struggle in defence but a more effective attack compared to their opponents. In contrast, Gamba Osaka finds themselves in a challenging position at 16th, with only 6 points from the same number of matches. Their season has been tough, marked by just one win and three draws against four losses. They have managed to score 8 goals, but their defence has been porous, conceding 14 goals, which highlights their ongoing difficulties in both scoring consistently and preventing goals. According to the model, Shimizu S-pulse has a strong probability of winning this match, with the projected score being 2-1. However, one caveat to consider is that if Gamba Osaka can tighten their defence and capitalize on any counter-attacks, they could pose a significant threat. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Shimizu S-pulse have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Shimizu S-pulse are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.54 | 3.06 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.21 | 3.58 | 3.13 | 1.76 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.21 | 3.63 | 3.14 | 1.75 | 2.10 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.05 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.18 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gamba Osaka leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka stands at 2 wins for Shimizu, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Gamba Osaka. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with no team dominating the other. The scorelines reflect a mix of closely contested matches, evident in the four draws and several narrow victories, such as Gamba's 1-0 wins and Shimizu's 2-0 triumph. However, Gamba Osaka has not lost to Shimizu in their last five encounters, suggesting a slight edge in recent matchups. Overall, the fixtures have been competitive without any significant lopsided results.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 21 | WWWLL |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 20 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 16 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 | LLLLD |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 5 | DLDWL |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonShimizu S-pulse have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 and beat JEF United Chiba 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 13L from the last 37 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gamba Osaka have won 9 of their last 24 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Gamba Osaka 2-0 and lost to Kashiwa Reysol 5-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 14D 13L from the last 45 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Gamba Osaka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shimizu S-pulse have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Gamba Osaka 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shimizu S-pulse have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 3.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shimizu S-pulse player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
