Trans Narva vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Trans Narva vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win this match against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Paide currently sits in a strong fourth position in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 35 points from 21 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid balance of offensive and defensive play, scoring 33 goals while conceding 28. The team has shown resilience, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a positive trajectory as they push for a higher spot in the league. On the other hand, Trans Narva is struggling at the bottom of the table in tenth place, with only 16 points from 21 games. Their goal difference of -31 highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 48 goals this season. Despite a recent form of two wins in their last five, their overall performance has been inconsistent, making it difficult for them to climb out of the relegation zone. The model gives Paide a win probability of approximately 65%, reflecting their superior standings and form. However, a potential pitfall for Paide could be complacency, especially against a lower-ranked opponent. The full methodology used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Trans Narva vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.35 | 3.55 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.15 | |
| 3.40 | 3.66 | 1.84 | 1.67 | 2.08 | 1.59 | 2.15 | |
| 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.90 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 3.21 | 4.01 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 3.12 | 3.17 | 1.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.46 | 3.66 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 2.08 | 1.59 | 2.19 | |
| 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.88 | 1.65 | 2.04 | 1.58 | 2.16 | |
| 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.98 | — | — |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.20 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 1.83 | 1.45 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Trans Narva leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Trans Narva and Paide, Trans Narva has won 5 times, Paide has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested. Notably, the majority of victories have been narrow, with 7 of the 10 matches decided by a single goal. The presence of a draw and the tight scorelines suggest that both teams are capable of holding their own against each other. Paide's last win came in September 2024, while Trans Narva has maintained a slight edge in recent encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 | Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTrans Narva have won 8 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 0-2 and beat Trans Narva 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 23L from the last 40 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Paide have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flora Tallinn 1-2 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 10D 12L from the last 42 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTrans Narva
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Tohver has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Tohver to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Trans Narva average 1.4 goals per match at home; Paide 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
