Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils
Match Preview
The model favours Tukums II to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against JFK Ventspils. Tukums II currently sits in 10th place in the league standings, having accumulated 12 points from 15 matches with a record of three wins, three draws, and nine losses. Their goal difference of -22 indicates defensive struggles, but they have managed to score 19 goals this season, which could give them the edge in this matchup. On the other hand, JFK Ventspils is positioned 12th with 11 points from 16 matches, featuring two wins, five draws, and nine losses. Their goal difference of -10 suggests they have been slightly more defensively stable than Tukums II, but with only 18 goals scored, they have struggled to convert opportunities into wins. Their recent form has been disappointing, with only one win in their last five matches. The model gives Tukums II a win probability of approximately 55%, while JFK Ventspils has a 30% chance of winning. The key market percentage to note is that Tukums II is seen as the clear favourite in the betting markets. However, a potential caveat for Tukums II is their inconsistent form, which could lead to an upset if they fail to capitalize on their chances. For a deeper understanding of these predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Tukums II have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Tukums II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tukums II vs JFK Ventspils| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.63 | 3.75 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.64 | 3.61 | 2.13 | 1.43 | 2.53 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.74 | 3.70 | 2.20 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.42 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 2.67 | 3.70 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.47 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (JFK Ventspils leads 3-1)In the last seven matches between Tukums II and JFK Ventspils, the record stands at 1 win for Tukums II, 3 draws, and 3 wins for JFK Ventspils. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches as evidenced by the three draws and low-margin victories. Notably, Tukums II's only win was a narrow 1-0 result, while JFK Ventspils secured their wins with a mix of tighter scores and one heavier 4-1 victory. Overall, the results suggest a balance, although JFK Ventspils has had the upper hand historically.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 25 | WLLWL |
| 11 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 12 | LDLWL |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTukums II have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tukums II 1-1 and beat Tukums II 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 16L from the last 26 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JFK Ventspils have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Riga Mariners 1-1 and beat Skanste 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 8D 14L from the last 28 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTukums II
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tukums II average 1.4 goals per match at home; JFK Ventspils 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tukums II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 23% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. Tukums II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.