Valmiera / BSS vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs Mārupe
Match Preview
The model favours Valmiera / BSS to win against Mārupe, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Valmiera / BSS currently sit in second place in the league standings with an impressive record of 13 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss from 16 matches. Their goal-scoring prowess is notable, with 44 goals scored and only 14 conceded, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of +30. This strong performance reflects their ability to dominate games and maintain a solid defensive line. In contrast, Mārupe is positioned seventh in the league, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses this season. With 26 goals scored and 25 conceded, their goal difference of just +1 indicates a more balanced but less dominant performance compared to their opponents. Recent form has not been in their favour, as they have only managed one win in their last five matches, highlighting potential struggles in both attack and defense. The model output gives Valmiera / BSS a win probability of approximately 70%, with a projected score of 3-1. While they have been strong at home and are in good form, a potential caveat is that Mārupe could spring a surprise if they manage to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method of this analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Valmiera / BSS win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Valmiera / BSS clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Valmiera / BSS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs Mārupe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.15 | 6.20 | 10.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 7.20 | 12.00 | 1.25 | 3.28 | 1.74 | 1.91 | |
| 1.12 | 7.50 | 13.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.14 | 6.87 | 9.54 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.15 | 6.50 | 12.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 1.20 | 6.25 | 9.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 7.20 | 12.00 | 1.25 | 3.28 | 1.74 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 1.18 | 6.20 | 9.75 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.16 | 6.50 | 9.70 | 1.27 | 3.10 | 1.75 | 1.97 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 1-0)In their only past meeting, Valmiera / BSS has won against Mārupe with a record of 1 win and 0 draws. The match ended with a score of 3-2 in favor of Valmiera / BSS, indicating a competitive encounter. This close scoreline suggests that while Valmiera / BSS emerged victorious, Mārupe was able to score and keep the match tight. There have been no draws, and Mārupe has yet to secure a win against Valmiera / BSS in their head-to-head history.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 79 | 16 | 63 | 48 | DWWWD |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 56 | 18 | 38 | 48 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 45 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 44 | WWWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 26 | 14 | 37 | WWWWD |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 25 | DLDLW |
| 7 | Mārupe | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 25 | LLWLL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 54 | -31 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 10 | LLLLW |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 61 | -45 | 6 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValmiera / BSS have won 10 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Metta / LU 2-2 and beat Mārupe 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 3D 7L from the last 31 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Mārupe have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 4-1 and lost to Skanste 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 2D 18L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersValmiera / BSS
No reported absences
Mārupe
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Valmiera / BSS average 2.8 goals per match at home; Mārupe 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 68% of their matches and averaging 2.8 goals per game. Valmiera / BSS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
