Vaprus vs Tammeka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Tammeka
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tammeka currently sits in 5th place in the Meistriliiga with 26 points from 17 matches, showcasing a solid season overall. They have recorded 8 wins, which highlights their ability to find the back of the net, scoring 20 goals while conceding just 21, resulting in a goal difference of -1. Their recent form further supports their standing, with three wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Vaprus is positioned 6th in the league with 23 points from 18 matches, having won 7, drawn 2, and lost 9. Their goal-scoring has been less impressive, with 22 goals scored but 34 conceded, leading to a goal difference of -12. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings, which may hinder their chances against a more stable Tammeka side. The model gives Tammeka a 38.1% win probability, while Vaprus has a 35.5% chance of winning and a 26.4% likelihood of a draw. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 57.6%, and both teams scoring is projected at 61.0%. However, Vaprus could surprise if they manage to convert their chances effectively, which may shift the match dynamics. For a full breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs Tammeka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 2.59 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.66 | 2.09 | 1.53 | 2.28 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.68 | 3.35 | 2.46 | 1.69 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.61 | 3.23 | 2.18 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.59 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.66 | 2.09 | 1.53 | 2.32 | |
| 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.17 | 1.48 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.10 | — | — |
Superbet | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.47 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.13 | 2.15 | 1.52 | 1.85 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vaprus leads 5-1)The head-to-head record between Vaprus and Tammeka shows Vaprus winning 5 matches, Tammeka winning 1, and 4 matches ending in draws over their last 10 encounters. This record indicates a strong advantage for Vaprus, highlighted by significant scorelines such as an 8-1 victory and a 5-0 win. The presence of four draws suggests that Tammeka has been able to hold Vaprus at times, but their sole victory is notably distant, occurring in a friendly match. Overall, Vaprus has consistently dominated this matchup, with several heavy defeats for Tammeka.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 19 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 36 | LWWLW |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 4 |  Paide | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 32 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Vaprus | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 26 | LWLWL |
| 6 | Tammeka | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 26 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  Laagri | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 25 | WWLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 18 | DLLLD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 20 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 13 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vaprus 5-1 and beat Vaprus 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 16L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Tammeka have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 5-1 and beat Kalju Nomme 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 12L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Tammeka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.6 goals per match at home; Tammeka 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Tammeka player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
