Vasco DA Gama vs Santos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos
Match Preview
The model favours Santos to win this match against Vasco da Gama, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Santos currently sits in 15th place in the Serie A standings, just one point ahead of their opponents. With five wins, seven draws, and eight losses from 20 matches, Santos has shown a slightly better overall form this season. Their goal difference of -4 indicates a more competitive performance compared to Vasco, who has a goal difference of -8. Vasco da Gama, in 18th place, is struggling in the relegation zone with only 21 points from 20 matches. Their recent form shows just one win in their last five games, which highlights their difficulties in securing victories. While they have managed to draw three times, the lack of consistency and inability to convert draws into wins could be detrimental in this matchup. The model output suggests that Santos has a win probability of approximately 45% for this game, while Vasco's chances sit at around 30%. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of a low-scoring game, given both teams' struggles in front of goal. However, a potential caveat for Santos is their tendency to draw matches, which could lead to an unexpected result if they fail to capitalize on their chances. For more details on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains their in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vasco DA Gama manage games at home, conceding just 1.20 goals per match. Santos score 1.59 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Vasco DA Gama have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Vasco DA Gama clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vasco DA Gama are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.93 | |
| 1.91 | 3.38 | 3.95 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.88 | |
| 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.96 | 3.48 | 4.20 | 2.04 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 1.93 | 3.23 | 3.85 | 2.03 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.97 | 3.48 | 4.07 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.80 | 1.96 | 1.80 | 1.76 | 1.95 | |
| 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.45 | 3.95 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Santos leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Vasco DA Gama and Santos, Santos has won 5 times, Vasco DA Gama has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including four games decided by a single goal. However, there have also been heavier defeats, such as Santos' 6-0 win over Vasco DA Gama in August 2025 and a 4-1 victory in October 2023. The last win for Vasco DA Gama against Santos was in April 2025, indicating a slight edge for Santos in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 48 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 34 | DDDDD |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 25 | WLDLW |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 11 | DLDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA Gama have won 9 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Santos 0-3 and drew with Olimpia 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 15D 13L from the last 40 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Santos have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Santos 0-3 and beat Remo 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 14D 12L from the last 41 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVasco DA Gama4-2-3-1Confirmed
Santos4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersVasco DA Gama3
Santos8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Casagrande has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Vasco DA Gama have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Santos 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vasco DA Gama have generated 1.26 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vasco DA Gama player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
