Viborg vs Aarhus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Viborg vs Aarhus
Match Preview
The model favours Viborg to win against Aarhus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Viborg currently sits in third place in the Superliga standings after one match, having secured a win with a strong goal difference of +1. Their recent form shows a competitive edge, with three wins in their last five matches. This solid start to the season, coupled with their defensive strength—having conceded no goals thus far—positions them well for this fixture. Aarhus, on the other hand, is in fourth place with one draw from their opening match. They have scored and conceded one goal, leading to a goal difference of zero. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a determined Viborg side. The model gives Viborg a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that if Aarhus can tighten their defence and exploit any gaps in Viborg's play, they could potentially disrupt the prediction. The full methodology behind this prediction, which leverages expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has worked diligently to provide these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Viborg have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Viborg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Viborg vs Aarhus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 2.07 | 3.79 | 3.49 | 1.58 | 2.48 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.22 | 3.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.34 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
| 2.02 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.60 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Superbet | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 1.66 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aarhus leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Viborg and Aarhus, the record stands at Viborg 1, draws 4, and Aarhus 5. This indicates a slight advantage for Aarhus, with the majority of encounters resulting in their favor. The scorelines reveal a mix of competitive and closer matches, including four draws, but also a few decisive wins, notably Aarhus's 5-2 victory. Viborg's last win against Aarhus came in October 2023, suggesting they have struggled to secure victories in this fixture historically. Overall, the results indicate a moderately competitive rivalry with Aarhus having the upper hand.
Superliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Viborg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  Brondby | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 13 | LLWWW |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 10 | WLWWL |
| 10 |  Odense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 | LDDLL |
| 11 | Aarhus | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 1 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonViborg have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lyngby 0-2 and beat FC Copenhagen 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 13L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aarhus have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Randers FC 2-1 and lost to Benfica 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 12D 9L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedViborg4-3-3Confirmed
Aarhus3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersViborg3
Aarhus4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Redder has averaged 2.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Viborg have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Aarhus 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viborg have generated 1.65 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viborg player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.