Viking vs Aalesund Prediction, Tips & Odds
Viking vs Aalesund
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win against Aalesund, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Viking is currently positioned second in the league, showcasing a strong season with 13 wins from 17 matches. Their impressive goal difference of +23, with 40 goals scored and only 17 conceded, highlights their offensive strength and defensive solidity. Recent form further indicates their competitiveness, with three wins, one draw, and just one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Aalesund finds themselves struggling at 15th place, having only secured two victories in 16 matches this season. Their record of eight draws and six losses contributes to a total of just 14 points, placing them firmly in the relegation zone. Aalesund's goal difference of -14, with 22 goals scored and 36 conceded, underscores their difficulties both in attack and defense. Their recent form is concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, resulting in three draws and two losses. The model indicates a win probability of 72% for Viking, while Aalesund's chances stand at 10%. The key market percentage to note is Viking's odds of winning by a margin of two or more goals. However, Aalesund could pose a challenge if they manage to disrupt Viking's rhythm early in the match. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where we detail our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.1% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 75% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Viking win as the most likely scoreline at 11.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Viking clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Viking vs Aalesund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.25 | 6.25 | 8.80 | 1.25 | 3.85 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.22 | 6.70 | 9.70 | 1.21 | 3.62 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 10.00 | 1.22 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.24 | 7.41 | 9.27 | 1.23 | 4.21 | — | — | |
| 1.24 | 5.99 | 7.62 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.22 | 7.00 | 9.00 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.24 | 6.98 | 10.10 | 1.21 | 3.62 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 1.25 | 6.25 | 9.50 | 1.26 | 3.35 | 1.58 | 2.18 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 10.00 | 1.25 | 3.50 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.25 | 6.40 | 8.50 | 1.25 | 3.70 | 1.55 | 2.32 |
Superbet | 1.23 | 6.80 | 8.80 | 1.24 | 3.75 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.20 | 6.50 | 9.50 | 1.22 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Viking leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Viking and Aalesund, Viking has won 6 times, Aalesund has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines suggest that Viking has generally been the stronger side, with several convincing victories, including a notable 4-0 win and a 5-2 win. The matches have featured a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes, but Aalesund's last victory came in 2026, indicating a trend of Viking dominance in recent encounters. Overall, the historical record leans favorably towards Viking, highlighting their ability to secure wins against Aalesund.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 | Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonViking have won 13 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Viking 2-1 and beat Viking 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 5D 3L from the last 32 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aalesund have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Viking 2-1 and beat Langevag 0-13.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 13L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedViking4-1-4-1Confirmed
Aalesund5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersViking4
Aalesund4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Stofringshaug has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Viking have averaged 7.7 corners per match at home; Aalesund 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.69 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 75% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
