Aalesund vs Molde Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aalesund vs Molde
Match Preview
The model favours Molde to win against Aalesund, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 5th in the league, Molde has shown solid form this season with six wins, one draw, and four losses from their 11 matches. Their goal difference of +5, alongside scoring 18 goals while conceding 13, highlights their offensive capabilities and relative defensive stability. On the other hand, Aalesund sits in 13th place with only two wins from their 11 games. Their season has been marked by a struggle to convert draws into victories, as evidenced by their five draws. Despite their recent form of three wins and two draws in the last five matches, they face a significant challenge against a stronger opponent like Molde. The model assigns a 44.3% win probability for Molde, while Aalesund's chances stand at 30.2%. Additionally, there is a 61.2% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score with a 63.7% probability. One caveat for this prediction is Aalesund's recent resurgence in form, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Molde have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Molde are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aalesund vs Molde| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.42 | 2.62 | |
| 3.12 | 3.72 | 2.07 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.40 | 2.68 | |
| 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 3.23 | 3.92 | 2.13 | 1.48 | 2.74 | — | — | |
| 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.11 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.12 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.40 | 2.73 | |
| 3.10 | 3.65 | 2.08 | 1.50 | 2.35 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Superbet | 3.10 | 3.65 | 2.12 | 1.51 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.00 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Molde leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Aalesund and Molde, Molde has won 6 times, Aalesund has won once, and there have been no draws. This record indicates a strong advantage for Molde, particularly evident in their ability to secure heavy victories, as seen in scorelines like 4-1 and 3-0. Aalesund's only win came recently in May 2023, but prior to that, they had not beaten Molde since 2020. Overall, the fixtures have mostly favored Molde, showcasing their dominance in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 33 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 11 | 23 | 32 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 | Molde | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 19 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Aalesund | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 | LDDDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | LDLLL |
| 16 |  Start | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 10 | WLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAalesund have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aalesund 2-2 and drew with Aalesund 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 11L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Molde have won 1 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Aalesund 2-2 and lost to Rosenborg 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 10L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersAalesund7
Molde5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Hansen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by T. Hansen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Aalesund have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Molde 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Molde have generated 1.52 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Molde player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
