Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam
Match Preview
The model favours Ham-Kam to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Ham-Kam has shown solid form throughout the season with five wins, three draws, and three losses from 11 matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted 19 goals, which gives them a slight edge in attacking prowess compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF. Sarpsborg 08 FF finds itself in 7th position with a mixed record of five wins, two draws, and five losses from 12 games. While they have managed to score 14 goals, their defensive record of 16 goals conceded highlights some vulnerabilities. Their recent form also reflects inconsistency, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. The model indicates a win probability of around 48% for Ham-Kam, suggesting a closely contested match. One key market percentage to note is that Ham-Kam is likely to see a significant share of the betting action. However, Sarpsborg 08 FF could surprise if they manage to tighten their defence and convert their chances effectively. For a complete understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF win as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sarpsborg 08 FF are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 1.60 | 4.15 | 4.85 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.63 | 4.39 | 5.13 | 1.57 | 2.49 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.94 | 4.59 | 1.56 | 2.42 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.64 | 4.24 | 4.96 | 1.57 | 2.43 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 1.64 | 3.95 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.56 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.90 | 1.60 | 2.32 | 1.60 | 2.18 |
Superbet | 1.63 | 4.15 | 4.65 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sarpsborg 08 FF leads 5-2)In their last 10 matchups, Sarpsborg 08 FF has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Ham-Kam has secured 2 victories. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive fixtures, with Sarpsborg achieving several narrow wins, including a 2-1 and a 3-2. However, they also experienced a significant defeat, losing 1-7 to Ham-Kam in one of their encounters. The presence of three draws suggests that matches can be closely contested, but overall, Sarpsborg holds a stronger record in this head-to-head history.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 22 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Ham-Kam | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSarpsborg 08 FF have won 8 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 and beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 8L from the last 25 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ham-Kam have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Ham-Kam 0-3 and lost to Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 12L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersSarpsborg 08 FF3
Ham-Kam1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Ham-Kam 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sarpsborg 08 FF have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sarpsborg 08 FF player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
