Lillestrom vs Viking Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lillestrom vs Viking
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win against Lillestrom, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Viking currently sits at the top of the Eliteserien standings, boasting an impressive record of nine wins from ten matches. Their attack has been prolific, scoring 29 goals while conceding just 10, resulting in a goal difference of +19. Viking's recent form has been particularly strong, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, indicating a team in excellent shape. Lillestrom, on the other hand, occupies the fourth position in the league table but has struggled recently, recording just one win in their last five matches. Their overall record of six wins, one draw, and four losses reflects inconsistency, particularly with their defensive performance, which has seen them concede 11 goals this season. While they have shown potential, their recent form raises concerns about their ability to challenge the league leaders effectively. The model estimates Viking's win probability at around 70%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Lillestrom's home advantage, which could influence the match dynamics. For a detailed breakdown of how we arrived at this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 74% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lillestrom vs Viking| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.95 | 3.70 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| 3.02 | 3.60 | 2.16 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 3.14 | 3.81 | 2.21 | 1.55 | 2.56 | — | — | |
| 2.92 | 3.50 | 2.16 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.09 | 3.68 | 2.21 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 1.46 | 2.53 | |
| 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.18 | 1.56 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Superbet | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 1.54 | 2.40 | 1.46 | 2.52 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.51 | 2.35 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Viking leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Lillestrom and Viking, Viking has won 6 times, Lillestrom has secured 2 victories, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a generally dominant performance by Viking, particularly highlighted by their 4-1 win in the most recent encounter and a 5-1 victory from 2021. While Lillestrom has had moments of success, such as their own 4-1 win against Viking earlier this year, the overall trend reveals that Viking has been the stronger side, with Lillestrom last winning in October 2022.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLillestrom have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lillestrom 1-2 and beat Lillestrom 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 13L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Viking have won 9 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Viking 1-1 and beat Lillestrom 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 4D 3L from the last 27 games (74% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLillestrom4-1-4-1Confirmed
Viking4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersLillestrom3
Viking4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Lillestrom have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Viking 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 74% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
