Aalesund vs Viking Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aalesund vs Viking
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win against Aalesund, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Viking currently sits in second place in the Eliteserien standings, having accumulated 27 points from 11 matches with an impressive record of nine wins and only two losses. Their scoring capability is notable, having netted 29 goals while conceding just 11, which highlights their strong goal difference of 18. Viking's recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, demonstrating their consistency and ability to secure points. On the other hand, Aalesund is positioned 12th with only 12 points from 12 matches, reflecting a challenging season thus far. With two wins, six draws, and four losses, their goal difference of -5 indicates that they have struggled to both score and defend effectively, having scored 17 goals and conceded 22. Aalesund has shown some improvement recently, going unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins and three draws, but they still face significant challenges against a top-performing opponent. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Viking, with Aalesund at 15% and a 20% chance for a draw. However, it is important to note that Aalesund's recent unbeaten form could pose a potential risk for Viking, as they may be building momentum. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 76% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Viking win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aalesund vs Viking| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.80 | 4.60 | 1.48 | 1.42 | 2.85 | 1.48 | 2.40 | |
| 5.45 | 4.60 | 1.49 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.47 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 5.55 | 4.84 | 1.50 | 1.41 | 2.94 | — | — | |
| 5.03 | 4.33 | 1.43 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.50 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 5.58 | 4.70 | 1.52 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 5.40 | 4.35 | 1.50 | 1.42 | 2.60 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 5.60 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.42 | 2.77 | 1.52 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 5.20 | 4.65 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 2.82 | 1.51 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Viking leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Aalesund and Viking, Viking has won 6 times, Aalesund has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, with Viking often securing significant victories, including a 4-0 win and a 5-2 win in recent encounters. Aalesund's victories have been tighter, with their last win occurring over a year ago, suggesting Viking's dominance in this matchup. Overall, the data reflects a trend of Viking outperforming Aalesund in their head-to-head meetings.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 33 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 11 | 23 | 32 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 31 | WWDDL |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 | LWWLL |
| 5 |  Molde | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 19 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Aalesund | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 12 | LDDDW |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 | DLLLW |
| 16 |  Start | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 33 | -19 | 7 | LLLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAalesund have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aalesund 2-2 and drew with Aalesund 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 11L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Viking have won 8 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 and drew with Sonderjyske 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 3D 3L from the last 25 games (76% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersAalesund5
Viking6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aalesund have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Viking 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 76% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
