Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad
Match Preview
The model favours Fredrikstad to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fredrikstad currently sits in 10th place in the league, having garnered 14 points from their 12 matches. Their season record includes four wins, two draws, and six losses, with a goal difference of -7. Despite some inconsistency, they have shown resilience with one recent victory and two draws in their last five matches. Rosenborg, on the other hand, finds themselves in 13th place with just 12 points, recording three wins, three draws, and six losses this season. Their goal difference stands at -6, indicating struggles in both scoring and defending. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses, which may not inspire confidence as they look to improve their standing. The model suggests Fredrikstad has a 55% win probability for this fixture. However, a caveat for Fredrikstad is their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 22 goals this season, which could allow Rosenborg to capitalize if they can find their scoring touch. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, including our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has carefully considered these factors in making this projection.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Rosenborg have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Rosenborg win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Rosenborg clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Rosenborg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.55 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.58 | 4.45 | 5.64 | 1.70 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 1.68 | 3.45 | 4.14 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.75 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.57 | 4.30 | 5.68 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.25 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.70 | 2.12 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.56 | 4.15 | 5.25 | 1.71 | 2.07 | 1.74 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Rosenborg leads 2-1)The head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad stands at 2 wins for Rosenborg, 2 draws, and 1 win for Fredrikstad over the last five matches. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with no team consistently dominating. The scorelines show a mix of close encounters, including two draws and several narrow victories, suggesting tight contests. Notably, Fredrikstad's last win came in the NM Cupen in May 2024, while Rosenborg has secured two wins since then in league play, indicating a slight recent edge for them in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 18 | LWWWD |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRosenborg have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Fredrikstad 4-0 and lost to Manchester United 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 12L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fredrikstad have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rosenborg 4-0 and lost to Bodo/Glimt 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 11L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersRosenborg2
Fredrikstad5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
O. Nilsen has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Rosenborg have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Fredrikstad 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Rosenborg have generated 1.45 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rosenborg player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
