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Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood Prediction, Tips & Odds

Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood

Pro LeagueRegular Season - 12
Al-Nassr
#3 · Pro League
WWWLD
VS
King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Al Kholood
#9 · Pro League
LLLWD

Match Preview

The model favours Al-Nassr to win against Al Kholood, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al-Nassr currently sits in third place in the Pro League standings, boasting a solid record of six wins, one draw, and one loss from eight matches. Their offensive strength is evident with 19 goals scored, while their defensive capabilities are highlighted by only seven goals conceded, resulting in a goal difference of 12. Recent form shows them winning three of their last five matches, suggesting a strong competitive edge. In contrast, Al Kholood finds itself in eighth place with a record of three wins, three draws, and three losses from nine matches. They have scored 14 goals but have also conceded 18, leading to a negative goal difference of four. Their recent form is concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, indicating potential struggles to keep pace with the league's top teams. The model gives Al-Nassr a win probability of approximately 65% for this match. However, it is essential to consider that if Al Kholood manages to capitalize on defensive lapses from Al-Nassr, they could pose a threat. For detailed insights into how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 4 Meetings (Al-Nassr leads 3-0)
3 Al-Nassr1 Draw0 Al Kholood
30 Jan
Al Kholood
0-3
Al-Nassr
Pro League
Sept 25
Al-Nassr
2-0
Al Kholood
Pro League
Mar 25
Al-Nassr
3-1
Al Kholood
Pro League
Oct 24
Al Kholood
3-3
Al-Nassr
Pro League

Al-Nassr hold the edge in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings with 1 draws and 0 Al Kholood wins. The record points to a tie Al-Nassr have controlled for years, though the draws show Al Kholood have at times kept it tight.

Pro League Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
108112491525
WWWDW
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
98012772024
WWWLW
3
Al-Nassr
97112071322
WWDWL
4
Al-Ittihad FC
96211810820
WLWWW
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
960323121118
WWWLW
6
NEOM
10514149516
LLDWW
9
Al Kholood
93331418-412
LLLWD
16
Al-Fateh
111371023-136
LLWLL
17
Al Taawon
10046417-134
LDLLL
18
Abha
8026615-92
LDLLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Al-NassrHome
5W0D0L
5 playedGF 11 · GA 23.00 pts/game
Al KholoodAway
0W3D2L
5 playedGF 6 · GA 90.60 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Al-NassrAl Kholood
2.36Goals p.g.1.16
0.92Goals conceded p.g.1.72
47%Clean sheets19%
75%Win rate25%
3.28Avg goals in match2.88
1.79xG per game1.78
-0.41xGA per game-0.27
57%Possession %48%
5.1Shots on target / game4.4
8.0Corners per game5.1
Al-Nassr
Recent Form

Al-Nassr have won 15 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat NEOM 1-0 and beat Neftchi 3-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 27W 2D 7L from the last 36 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Al-NassrAll competitions
20 Oct
Al-Nassr
1-0
NEOM
Pro League
12 Oct
Al-Nassr
3-1
Neftchi
AFC Champions League Elite
09 Oct
Al-Nassr
3-0
Al Diriyah
Pro League
15 Sept
Al Ain
4-0
Al-Nassr
AFC Champions League Elite
12 Sept
Al Khaleej Saihat
1-1
Al-Nassr
Pro League
09 Sept
Al-Nassr
2-1
Abha
Pro League
27
Win
75%
2
Draw
6%
7
Lost
19%
Al Kholood
Recent Form

Al Kholood have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al Kholood 3-2 and lost to Al Riyadh 2-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 13L from the last 32 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Al KholoodAll competitions
15 Oct
Al-Faisaly FC
3-2
Al Kholood
Pro League
09 Oct
Al Kholood
0-5
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League
13 Sept
Al Riyadh
2-0
Al Kholood
Pro League
09 Sept
Al Kholood
2-1
Al Shabab
Pro League
03 Sept
Al-Fayha
2-2
Al Kholood
Pro League
29 Aug
Al Kholood
3-1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League
8
Win
25%
11
Draw
34%
13
Lost
41%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Al-Nassr

No reported absences

Al Kholood

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.