Arsenal vs Everton Prediction, Tips & Odds
Arsenal vs Everton
Match Preview
The model favours Arsenal to win against Everton, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Arsenal currently sits in second place in the league after a strong start to the season, having secured five wins out of six matches. Their goal-scoring ability has been solid, with ten goals scored and only five conceded, indicating a positive goal difference of five. The team's recent form shows four wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are in good shape heading into this fixture. Everton, on the other hand, occupies eighth place in the standings with a record of two wins and three draws from five matches. They remain unbeaten this season, with a total of six goals scored and only three conceded, resulting in a goal difference of three. Their recent form includes two wins and three draws, which highlights their resilience, but they may need to increase their goal output to compete effectively against a top side like Arsenal. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Arsenal, with a projected score of 2-1. While Arsenal holds the advantage, a potential caveat could be Everton's defensive solidity, which may frustrate Arsenal's attempts to break through. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 49% of matches. Everton average 1.4 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Arsenal have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Arsenal win as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Arsenal clean sheets, in line with their 49% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Arsenal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Arsenal vs Everton| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.46 | 4.45 | 7.50 | 1.86 | 1.96 | 2.00 | 1.72 | |
| 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 1.45 | 4.36 | 8.28 | 1.87 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 4.00 | 6.28 | 1.87 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 8.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.50 | 4.57 | 7.70 | 1.92 | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.74 | |
Betano | 1.45 | 4.35 | 7.70 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.50 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Arsenal leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Arsenal and Everton, Arsenal has won 7 times, with 2 draws and 1 victory for Everton. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided contest, with Arsenal often securing narrow wins, such as 1-0 and 2-1, but also achieving heavier victories like 4-0 and 5-1. Everton's lone win came in early 2023, making it their only success in this span, while Arsenal has maintained a strong advantage overall. The frequent draws and low-scoring matches further highlight the competitive nature of some encounters, despite Arsenal's dominant record.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | LLLWD |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonArsenal have won 15 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Arsenal 3-0 and beat Arsenal 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 28W 8D 7L from the last 43 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Everton have won 7 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Hull City 2-2 and drew with Tottenham 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 10L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersArsenal
No reported absences
Everton
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tony Harrington has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Tony Harrington to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Arsenal have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Everton 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Arsenal have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Arsenal player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
