Coventry vs Fulham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coventry vs Fulham
Match Preview
The model favours Coventry to win this match against Fulham, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Coventry currently sits in 19th place in the Premier League, having secured just one victory in their first five matches. Their only win came early in the season, contributing to a goal difference of -9, with just one goal scored and ten conceded. This poor start has left them with only three points, but they will be eager to build on their record against a struggling Fulham side. Fulham, on the other hand, is at the bottom of the table in 20th place. They have yet to win a match this season, with two draws and four losses from six games, resulting in two points overall. Their goal difference stands at -4, having scored six goals while conceding ten. Fulham's recent form shows a mix of draws and losses, indicating they have struggled to find consistency and secure crucial points. According to the model, Coventry has a win probability of 55%, while Fulham's chances sit at 25%. There is a 20% probability of a draw. However, a potential caveat for Coventry is their fragile confidence, given their recent performance. If they fail to convert chances or defend effectively, Fulham could take advantage. The full methodology behind this prediction is available in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes expected goals and actual results data.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Coventry have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Coventry are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coventry vs Fulham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.16 | 3.54 | 2.25 | 1.76 | 2.09 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 3.20 | 3.54 | 2.28 | 1.78 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 2.74 | 3.10 | 2.26 | 1.71 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.24 | 3.64 | 2.31 | 1.81 | 2.15 | 1.58 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.27 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Coventry leads 2-0)In the last two matches between Coventry and Fulham, Coventry has won both encounters, resulting in a record of 2 wins for Coventry and 0 for Fulham, with no draws. The scorelines indicate a clear advantage for Coventry, with victories of 3-1 and 4-1, suggesting that their wins have been relatively comfortable. Fulham has not managed to score more than one goal in either match, highlighting a struggle to compete offensively. Additionally, Fulham has not won against Coventry in their recent meetings, making it over two years since they last faced them in April 2022.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | LLLWD |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoventry have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Newcastle 4-1 and lost to Aston Villa 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 5D 8L from the last 29 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fulham have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ipswich 2-1 and beat West Ham 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 15L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCoventry
No reported absences
Fulham
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Adam Herczeg has averaged 6.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Coventry have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Fulham 7.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Coventry have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Coventry player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
