Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chelsea vs Tottenham
Match Preview
The model favours Chelsea to win against Tottenham, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Chelsea currently sits in 5th place in the Premier League, having played six matches this season. Their form has been mixed, with three wins, one draw, and two losses, resulting in 10 points. The team has scored 15 goals while conceding 13, indicating a positive goal difference of 2. Key to their success has been their attacking capabilities, averaging 2.5 goals per game, which places them among the stronger offensive teams in the league. In contrast, Tottenham finds itself struggling in 18th place, still searching for its first win of the season after six matches. With three draws and three losses, they have only accumulated 3 points and have scored just 3 goals while conceding 9, leading to a goal difference of -6. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, failing to secure a victory in their last five matches and showing a lack of offensive potency. The model assigns a high probability of Chelsea winning this match, reflecting their stronger league position and recent form. However, one caveat to consider is that Tottenham may find motivation in this London derby, potentially altering their performance. The full methodology used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Chelsea have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Chelsea win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Chelsea are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chelsea vs Tottenham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 4.33 | 4.45 | 1.45 | 2.51 | 1.50 | 2.41 | |
| 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.60 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.75 | 4.27 | 4.36 | 1.52 | 2.65 | — | — | |
| 1.69 | 3.65 | 3.83 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.38 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.75 | 4.46 | 4.58 | 1.50 | 2.59 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.35 | 1.53 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chelsea leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Chelsea and Tottenham, Chelsea has won 8 times, with 1 draw and 1 win for Tottenham. This record indicates a dominant performance by Chelsea, particularly highlighted by several narrow victories, including four matches decided by a single goal. The only win for Tottenham during this stretch came in February 2023, suggesting they have struggled to find consistent success against Chelsea. The overall scorelines reflect a mix of tight encounters and a few more decisive results, but Chelsea's strong advantage in wins underscores their historical upper hand in this rivalry.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 | WDLDD |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | LLLWD |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChelsea have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chelsea 5-1 and drew with Chelsea 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 5D 15L from the last 38 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tottenham have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Tottenham 1-1 and lost to Liverpool 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 12L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersChelsea
No reported absences
Tottenham
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Chris Kavanagh has averaged 5.3 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Chelsea have averaged 2.0 corners per match at home; Tottenham 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chelsea have generated 0.66 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chelsea player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
