Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction, Tips & Odds
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Match Preview
The model favours Crystal Palace to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 12th in the league, Crystal Palace has had a mixed start to the season with two wins, one draw, and three losses across six matches. Their goal difference of -3 indicates some defensive struggles, but they have managed to score nine goals, showcasing their attacking potential. Newcastle sits just one spot above Palace in 11th place with a slightly better record of two wins, two draws, and one loss from five matches. They have a balanced goal tally of nine scored and nine conceded, indicating they have been competitive but have struggled to secure consistent results. Their recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are gaining momentum. According to the model, Crystal Palace has a 37.1% chance of winning, while Newcastle's chances sit at 36.2%. The projected score reflects a competitive match, with over 2.5 goals expected in 57.0% of cases, and both teams scoring likely in 59.5% of scenarios. However, if Palace's defence falters as it has in previous matches, they could struggle to secure the win. For a detailed explanation of our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that interprets expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Newcastle have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Newcastle are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.94 | 3.58 | 2.36 | 1.64 | 2.29 | 1.50 | 2.41 | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.30 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 3.07 | 3.68 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.43 | — | — | |
| 2.61 | 3.26 | 2.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.02 | 3.68 | 2.42 | 1.69 | 2.36 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.32 | 1.60 | 2.37 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Newcastle leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Newcastle stands at 2 wins for Crystal Palace, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Newcastle over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Newcastle securing a notable 5-0 victory, while Crystal Palace's wins were more modest, with a maximum margin of 2-0. The frequency of draws, particularly four over this sample, suggests tightly contested matches. Notably, Newcastle has not lost to Crystal Palace since their last win in April 2022, while Crystal Palace's most recent victory came in April 2026, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 | LLWLD |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 7 | LWDLW |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | LLLWD |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCrystal Palace have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Crystal Palace 3-1 and lost to Crystal Palace 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 18L from the last 45 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Newcastle have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Coventry 4-1 and lost to Leeds 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 16L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCrystal Palace
No reported absences
Newcastle
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Paul Tierney has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Crystal Palace have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; Newcastle 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Newcastle have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Newcastle player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
