Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win this match against Atlas, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chivas currently sit in second place in the Liga MX standings, having accumulated 18 points from 10 matches. Their season has been relatively strong, with five wins, three draws, and only two losses. A key aspect of their performance has been their solid defence, conceding just 10 goals, which highlights their ability to control games and limit opponents' scoring opportunities. On the other hand, Atlas finds themselves in fifth place with 17 points, just one point behind Chivas. Their season has been more inconsistent, evidenced by a recent form of one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have managed to score 16 goals, their negative goal difference of -1 suggests that they have struggled defensively, conceding 17 goals overall. This vulnerability could be a critical factor in the upcoming match. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 54% for Chivas, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat to consider is Atlas' home advantage, which could influence the match dynamics. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.52 | 3.40 | 1.97 | 1.76 | 1.98 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 3.73 | 3.62 | 2.04 | 1.81 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 3.19 | 3.23 | 2.06 | 1.78 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.54 | 3.40 | 1.99 | 1.76 | 1.98 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 3.50 | 3.55 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas, the record stands at 2 wins for Atlas, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Guadalajara Chivas. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams having equal opportunities to secure victories. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight contests, as evidenced by the four matches ending in draws, and a few narrow wins, particularly with several matches finishing 1-0. Notably, Atlas has not won against Guadalajara Chivas in their last five encounters, with the last victory for Atlas occurring in 2024.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 23 | WDDLD |
| 3 |  Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 4 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 21 | WLDWD |
| 5 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 13 | LDLDW |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 32 | -24 | 4 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtlas have won 5 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Atlas 1-1 and drew with Atlas 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 15L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Guadalajara Chivas have won 9 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Atlas 1-1 and drew with Club America 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 12D 8L from the last 40 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAtlas3-4-2-1Confirmed
Guadalajara Chivas
Not yet available
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtlas
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atlas have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Guadalajara Chivas 7.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
