Necaxa vs FC Juarez Prediction, Tips & Odds
Necaxa vs FC Juarez
Match Preview
The model favours Necaxa to win against FC Juarez, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite currently sitting in 17th place, Necaxa has shown some signs of life, with two wins and two draws this season. Their goal difference of -8 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 12 goals across 10 matches, indicating they can find the back of the net. On the other hand, FC Juarez struggles significantly, positioned at the bottom of the table in 18th place with only one win from their 11 matches. Their goal-scoring woes are evident, as they have netted only 8 goals while conceding 26, resulting in a goal difference of -18. This lack of offensive output, combined with their poor form, makes it challenging for them to compete effectively. The model suggests a win probability of around 55% for Necaxa, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Necaxa's defense falters or if FC Juarez manages to capitalize on any opportunities, the outcome could shift. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is conducted using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Necaxa have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Necaxa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Necaxa vs FC Juarez| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.92 | 4.25 | 1.58 | 2.27 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.73 | 4.01 | 4.40 | 1.66 | 2.24 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.50 | 3.92 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.70 | 3.92 | 4.24 | 1.58 | 2.27 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.55 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Necaxa leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Necaxa and FC Juarez, Necaxa has won 4 times, drawn 5 times, and FC Juarez has secured just 1 victory. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with draws being particularly frequent. The scorelines suggest that while Necaxa has had some narrow wins, including a 1-0 result, they have also achieved a heavier victory with a 3-0 win. FC Juarez's sole win came a while ago, in January 2022, highlighting their struggle to dominate this matchup. Overall, the encounters have generally been closely contested, with a tendency towards low-scoring draws.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 23 | WDDLD |
| 3 |  Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 4 |  Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 21 | WLDWD |
| 5 |  Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 13 | LDLDW |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | LLDLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 32 | -24 | 4 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNecaxa have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atlas 0-2 and lost to Club America 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 18L from the last 36 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Juarez have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Juarez 5-0 and lost to Leon 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 19L from the last 36 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNecaxa
No reported absences
FC Juarez
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Necaxa have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; FC Juarez 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Necaxa have generated 1.92 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Necaxa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
